Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f665053a7ca5c102f2db15cfc49b1b9f38fa820a5f2bb4bde87bf9fbd9a2ab

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,299,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,234,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,299,548 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 919 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa022…77f8backed Yes	13c	158,982$20,335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,334.88	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	11c	119,193$13,563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,562.92	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5925…b194backed Yes	28c	115,385$31,777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31,777.19	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes	1c	90,485$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.96	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	+251%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb129…34bfbacked Yes	13c	69,929$9,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,358.77	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	5c	55,992$3,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,012.78	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7494…680dbacked Yes	24c	44,881$10,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,848	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	5c	38,856$1,842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,842.37	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	11c	34,871$3,938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,938.38	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes	2c	32,334$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.12	70	20%14 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	18c	30,000$5,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,399.99	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	10c	29,228$2,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,924.25	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes	6c	28,105$1,686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,686.3	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes	2c	23,993$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+4.3wins	+0.36per pick	47cpaid	+96.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes	14c	20,223$2,897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,897.02	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes	3c	20,200$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.8	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	21c	20,071$4,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,269.33	204	38.7%79 W · 125 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes	11c	18,378$2,095 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,095.49	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes	8c	18,150$1,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,452	60	60%36 W · 24 L	+7.9wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+125.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	13c	17,809$2,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,344.94	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed No	69c	17,774$12,257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,517.06	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	19c	17,663$3,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,285.64	264	29.2%77 W · 187 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	17,194$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.91	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes	19c	16,470$3,129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,129.28	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+8.7wins	+0.15per pick	37cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes	10c	15,510$1,541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,541	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes	17c	13,681$2,278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,278.17	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	26c	13,319$3,468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,468.38	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…229cbacked Yes	27c	13,150$3,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,566.29	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+68.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes	18c	12,990$2,358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,358.3	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed No	69c	12,160$8,381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,778.83	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+15.3wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes	1c	11,400$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.4	79	43%34 W · 45 L	+11.7wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	14c	11,342$1,581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,581.13	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	12c	11,261$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes	16c	11,227$1,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,772.42	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1b…3eb9backed Yes	4c	11,050$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.34	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	78c	10,955$8,586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,368.46	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	23c	10,715$2,417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,417.49	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes	6c	10,612$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.47	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d1…b590backed No	79c	10,024$7,919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,105.05	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes	9c	10,000$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871.42	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…194abacked Yes	1c	8,940$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	5c	8,850$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.12	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes	27c	8,831$2,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,403.47	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No	63c	8,735$5,502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,232.2	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No	73c	8,490$6,211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,278.35	212	59.9%127 W · 85 L	+21.8wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes	12c	8,400$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.98	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+3.6wins	+0.19per pick	34cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Yes	10c	8,278$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.45	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+6.8wins	+0.27per pick	17cpaid	+134.5%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes	17c	8,135$1,411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,411.19	166	50%83 W · 83 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes	7c	8,084$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.49	234	20.9%49 W · 185 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	24c	7,901$1,870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,869.92	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	3c	7,800$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	16c	7,767$1,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,209.72	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc68a…af49backed Yes	26c	7,496$1,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,930	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes	29c	7,420$2,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,123.52	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.16per pick	26cpaid	+181.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes	2c	7,420$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.86	57	12.3%7 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes	21c	6,829$1,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,449.13	161	31.7%51 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1653…0348backed Yes	30c	6,670$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.24per pick	32cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes	2c	6,569$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.1	156	26.9%42 W · 114 L	-10.6wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-38%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes	19c	6,545$1,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,246.99	207	49.3%102 W · 105 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No	70c	6,514$4,551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,962.23	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes	19c	6,500$1,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,205	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e54…80eabacked Yes	10c	6,423$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd988…fd9dbacked Yes	25c	6,257$1,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,552	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-3.1wins	-0.19per pick	32cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes	19c	6,226$1,183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.09	115	27%31 W · 84 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f5…3f92backed No	77c	6,124$4,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,424.44	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked Yes	5c	6,082$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.02	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x654a…cc32backed Yes	24c	6,055$1,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,436.32	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes	2c	5,805$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.67	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes	28c	5,709$1,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.18per pick	23cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes	15c	5,670$878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$878.15	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes	3c	5,600$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.5	130	22.3%29 W · 101 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	19c	5,461$1,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,017.2	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No	69c	5,304$3,649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,655.15	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No	76c	5,303$4,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.24	87	63.2%55 W · 32 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	67cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes	27c	5,131$1,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,374.16	78	37.2%29 W · 49 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No	77c	5,097$3,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,197.4	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No	65c	5,005$3,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,765.63	177	55.4%98 W · 79 L	+17.5wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No	68c	5,000$3,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,585	382	47.6%182 W · 200 L	+37.1wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes	1c	5,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.95	247	12.1%30 W · 217 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	18c	5,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3069…83cdbacked Yes	21c	4,936$1,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,031.09	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…3b37backed No	79c	4,919$3,886 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,032.99	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee9d…7d47backed Yes	19c	4,900$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes	12c	4,900$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.99	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+5.7wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+154.9%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes	10c	4,800$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes	25c	4,798$1,192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,191.52	72	38.9%28 W · 44 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No	64c	4,787$3,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,712.4	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	5c	4,759$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.31	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	4c	4,677$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.39	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes	36c	4,558$1,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,624.85	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes	27c	4,535$1,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,247.1	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes	9c	4,444$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.96	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca50…f5e2backed Yes	3c	4,431$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No	73c	4,392$3,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,164.28	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfea…d5b8backed Yes	2c	4,371$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03e2…a6fabacked Yes	3c	4,340$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb52b…cc4dbacked Yes	4c	4,243$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	2c	4,225$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.73	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes	13c	4,183$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.87	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event