Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1a7649662067f47e133657abc4188a195cbc962d987c82f1a0552dd89f9f3d5

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $113,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $120,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9028…43c8backed No	0c	11,541$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	20cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No	1c	9,959$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.45	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes	61c	5,778$3,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,262.36	165	53.9%89 W · 76 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No	0c	5,561$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95e7…9561backed No	67c	5,549$3,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,700	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	60c	5,495$3,288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,207.63	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92a6…8b84backed Yes	80c	4,999$3,992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,007.86	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	79c	4,088$3,223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$864.57	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes	64c	3,652$2,329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,323.62	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	42c	3,138$1,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.21	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43eb…f17fbacked No	39c	3,084$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.71	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes	47c	1,711$804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$907.26	155	41.9%65 W · 90 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No	26c	1,657$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.1	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	12c	1,512$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.4	197	39.1%77 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46b2…df24backed No	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No	37c	1,450$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-9.9wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No	1c	1,309$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2b…665abacked Yes	65c	1,000$645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.91	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	33c	1,000$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$670	177	37.3%66 W · 111 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No	39c	917$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.63	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa069…1e59backed No	33c	908.36$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	17c	800$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed No	19c	784.52$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.85	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed No	40c	750$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	88	29.5%26 W · 62 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No	56c	535.81$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.56	110	37.3%41 W · 69 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes	63c	489.05$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.56	207	49.3%102 W · 105 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	50c	440.38$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.23	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked No	42c	398$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.86	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	64c	371.63$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.18	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	15c	352.94$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.94	366	34.4%126 W · 240 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed No	42c	333.33$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+5.6wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No	29c	316$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.64	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	+11.5wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No	30c	300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.37	194	49.5%96 W · 98 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	126	38.1%48 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No	37c	277.49$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.91	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…0f0ebacked No	54c	277.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.59	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-6.4wins	-0.20per pick	64cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No	9c	275.75$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.43	120	23.3%28 W · 92 L	+10.9wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No	27c	205$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.35	183	38.3%70 W · 113 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec8…0f6ebacked No	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed No	41c	200$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No	8c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c60…6125backed No	50c	198.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	35c	188$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.8	124	32.3%40 W · 84 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9c…c182backed No	25c	163.73$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.56	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2af1…6b27backed No	47c	159$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.59	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed Yes	63c	155.63$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.58	81	67.9%55 W · 26 L	+9.3wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No	20c	152.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.45	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No	44c	135.27$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.15	90	31.1%28 W · 62 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No	41c	133.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.13	181	35.9%65 W · 116 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed Yes	60c	124$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.32	267	56.2%150 W · 117 L	+12.3wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes	63c	123.33$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.88	89	29.2%26 W · 63 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	30c	119.37$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.85	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	37c	117.3$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.25	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes	67c	105$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb453…ec95backed No	39c	102.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes	71c	102$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.58	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	123	43.9%54 W · 69 L	+15.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed Yes	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1400…d220backed No	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.20per pick	47cpaid	-47%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-6.5wins	-0.10per pick	59cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa935…e865backed Yes	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	162	31.5%51 W · 111 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	306	35.9%110 W · 196 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed Yes	60c	94.1$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.04	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked Yes	58c	91$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.88	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6339…3158backed Yes	59c	81.36$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.36	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No	37c	81.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0897…6c23backed Yes	62c	80$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5b…f9cebacked No	26c	76.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	32c	72.12$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	589	27.2%160 W · 429 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb9e…11d4backed No	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No	43c	65.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	-7.4wins	-0.13per pick	45cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b81…1210backed No	45c	64$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.48	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-9.0wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x02ae…bad5backed No	37c	56.31$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…e8f7backed No	39c	55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes	58c	52.38$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	126	29.4%37 W · 89 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5527…5d03backed Yes	58c	51$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.42	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4460…54d1backed No	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f8a…9022backed Yes	45c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d48…678cbacked No	21c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.25	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d6…ae75backed No	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49c2…93d0backed No	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…f88ebacked No	41c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Yes	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes	35c	50$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.56	186	40.9%76 W · 110 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661a…e9e8backed No	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a34…b2a5backed No	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53f8…f76ebacked No	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2417…a907backed No	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3ba…ce27backed No	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.9wins	-0.32per pick	49cpaid	-75%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	31c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1616…7d49backed Yes	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65c8…4b28backed No	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bf8…136dbacked Yes	70c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event