TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0652…9134

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: La Liga, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 34.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4413.6%6 W · 38 L-9.9wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-66.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
Middle East — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.09
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.5
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.1
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,179.17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10,969Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,968.78
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$468.01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.75
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.75
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$554.84
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,670.07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20,112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,112.39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$4,908Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,907.68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$5,443Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+574%+$31,239.68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14,723Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,722.67
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$2,600
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.24
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$506.98
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$374.12
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$146
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$202.49
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,670.19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$9,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,910.46
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$81
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$664Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$663.65
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.5
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$779Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$401.2
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$96.08
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+33.3%+$54.23
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$250
All 9 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid+127.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,250.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.