Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11895e6064bac471d8fd8f930b260cf581b68d3f58630d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,411,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,686,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,411,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,568 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 76c | 1,029,824$778,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251,820.87 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…e8e9backed No | 0c | 998,300$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 504,084$365,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139,054.94 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 30c | 449,106$135,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,454.26 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 12c | 277,276$33,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,216.43 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 74c | 272,590$201,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70,850.14 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 73c | 243,456$177,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,637.39 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 27c | 166,948$44,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,953.74 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe48…683fbacked Yes | 79c | 126,240$100,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,240.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 17c | 124,861$20,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,919.28 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 75c | 112,753$84,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,859.41 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…2e9abacked No | 21c | 110,148$22,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,808.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 19c | 104,024$20,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,112.39 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 25c | 95,795$23,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,894.34 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 62c | 93,394$58,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,187.53 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 1c | 88,203$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 85,999$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 30c | 85,300$25,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,349.99 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 79c | 82,544$65,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,400.18 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…4158backed Yes | 80c | 78,512$62,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,765.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 29c | 68,200$19,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,777.98 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 70c | 62,000$43,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,737.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…ab74backed No | 35c | 60,876$21,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,074.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 71c | 59,828$42,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,515.47 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 75c | 59,016$44,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,726.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…28dfbacked Yes | 66c | 56,590$37,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,189.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…1076backed No | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cd…079bbacked No | 29c | 51,197$14,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,828.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 23c | 49,987$11,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,497 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 69c | 47,771$33,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,603.62 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 80c | 46,883$37,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,412.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +804.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 31c | 45,580$14,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,232.41 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked No | 25c | 45,000$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…0a45backed No | 11c | 44,500$4,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,683.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 66c | 44,444$29,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,110.96 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 70c | 41,505$29,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,451.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 68c | 41,172$27,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,331.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 72c | 40,588$29,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,364.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…384ebacked Yes | 69c | 39,388$27,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,320.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33de…e384backed No | 22c | 39,246$8,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,649.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 78c | 39,072$30,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,758.38 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 75c | 38,375$28,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,598.71 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…ea15backed No | 28c | 37,916$10,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,520.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 78c | 37,391$29,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,323.37 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…e6e4backed Yes | 71c | 37,043$26,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,635.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 28c | 34,972$9,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,791.08 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…dfccbacked Yes | 66c | 34,799$22,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,831.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 34,217$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.77 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 22c | 34,083$7,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,522.31 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 15c | 33,950$5,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,202.5 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 75c | 33,537$25,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,446.23 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 25c | 33,457$8,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,354.86 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 25c | 33,322$8,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,300.89 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 1c | 33,270$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.42 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 16c | 33,170$5,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,228.96 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 19c | 33,090$6,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,152.42 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…4898backed No | 1c | 32,666$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cc…da7ebacked No | 2c | 32,576$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 75c | 31,561$23,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,853.19 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 68c | 30,671$20,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,680.07 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…6fddbacked No | 36c | 29,575$10,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,647.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…66efbacked Yes | 71c | 28,920$20,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,288.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc823…a910backed Yes | 70c | 28,660$20,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,597.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 70c | 28,656$19,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,704.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 71c | 28,402$20,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,154.57 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 63c | 27,568$17,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,212.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 27c | 27,321$7,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,313.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 75c | 26,848$20,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,708.64 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 10c | 26,729$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.88 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaa…94e5backed Yes | 76c | 26,620$20,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,425.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 20c | 26,559$5,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,208.45 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f8…0856backed Yes | 73c | 26,027$19,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,027.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +389.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 16c | 26,000$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 72c | 26,000$18,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,169.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 69c | 25,560$17,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,972.14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa536…c38cbacked No | 34c | 25,277$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…ad00backed No | 15c | 25,266$3,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,791.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes | 69c | 25,106$17,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,816.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7f82backed Yes | 75c | 24,720$18,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,138 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…fe61backed Yes | 69c | 23,290$15,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,330.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…7457backed Yes | 68c | 22,060$14,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,137.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 73c | 21,920$16,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,868.89 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 66c | 21,397$14,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,324.39 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 72c | 21,104$15,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,933.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 30c | 21,000$6,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,390 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 71c | 20,228$14,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,859.94 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 21c | 20,226$4,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,247.41 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed No | 24c | 20,023$4,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,771.4 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6f…a3eabacked No | 30c | 20,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 67c | 19,786$13,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,610.99 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 69c | 19,702$13,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,202.72 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 24c | 19,324$4,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,715.44 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 32c | 19,303$6,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,125.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 36c | 19,210$7,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,009.53 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437a…2948backed Yes | 70c | 18,150$12,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,388.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 29c | 18,030$5,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,234.95 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed No | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…c2e0backed Yes | 70c | 17,998$12,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,399.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…47f7backed No | 0c | 17,951$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 79c | 17,822$14,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772.78 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.