Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20af55ab35186377b81219db6cb8615240cba42cea41731091be9484a5f5b122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,699,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,431,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,699,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 7,904 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd953…e8e9backed No | 0c | 1,408,327$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed No | 0c | 679,158$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…3212backed Yes | 37c | 232,311$84,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147,332.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 41c | 205,046$84,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,752.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 59c | 168,718$99,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,336.42 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…155dbacked No | 65c | 153,970$100,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…5095backed No | 65c | 148,023$95,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,589.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 46c | 125,203$57,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,901.96 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…229cbacked No | 0c | 125,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 122,940$72,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,328.05 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…f13ebacked No | 20c | 102,131$20,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,807.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 8c | 101,862$8,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,491.9 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cf03backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 56c | 99,021$54,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,053.13 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 36c | 98,549$35,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,967.49 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…8510backed No | 35c | 94,787$33,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,447.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 58c | 81,173$47,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,173.24 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 0c | 79,850$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked No | 15c | 72,211$10,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,772 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 49c | 67,958$33,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,536.37 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 38c | 64,422$24,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,158.27 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 45c | 62,774$27,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,783.03 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 57,333$23,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,881.95 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…4cd5backed Yes | 78c | 56,037$43,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,193.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 62c | 53,303$32,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,478.89 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 5c | 52,406$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…ad00backed Yes | 60c | 51,690$31,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,635.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 26c | 50,123$13,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,237.22 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed No | 37c | 47,854$17,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,554.93 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 56c | 47,515$26,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,812.23 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…736bbacked No | 45c | 44,172$19,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,780 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…2e9abacked No | 57c | 43,842$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed No | 41c | 43,300$17,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,593.91 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…1508backed Yes | 58c | 42,520$24,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,746.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 36c | 42,513$15,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,403.6 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 39c | 42,267$16,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,588.62 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cd…079bbacked No | 47c | 41,650$19,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,654.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 76c | 40,315$30,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,787.29 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 42c | 39,780$16,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,010.98 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 54c | 39,253$21,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,215.75 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…c4b1backed No | 54c | 38,642$21,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…6b2abacked No | 0c | 38,628$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 49c | 38,359$18,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,676.72 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcc…e816backed No | 45c | 37,846$16,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,938.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed Yes | 42c | 37,550$15,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,663.35 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…9d56backed No | 45c | 37,396$17,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 45c | 37,318$16,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,860.2 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 63c | 37,029$23,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,870.95 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…9c42backed Yes | 78c | 36,162$28,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,921.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…2649backed No | 42c | 34,651$14,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,409.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…29ddbacked Yes | 39c | 34,383$13,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,876.78 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 3c | 32,791$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.47 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 50c | 32,756$16,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,481.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes | 41c | 32,602$13,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,171.67 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…f921backed Yes | 51c | 32,208$16,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,838.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…e050backed Yes | 35c | 31,932$11,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,661.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 46c | 31,911$14,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,722.67 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…bd95backed Yes | 53c | 31,800$16,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,862.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…4898backed No | 25c | 30,560$7,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,573 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…1e9bbacked No | 0c | 30,069$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 40c | 30,000$11,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,149.98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 44c | 29,944$13,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,779.16 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 3c | 29,386$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.98 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f6…47ecbacked Yes | 46c | 27,623$12,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,916.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 32c | 27,000$8,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,451.46 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 29c | 25,620$7,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,517.07 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 24,570$8,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,748.64 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked No | 54c | 23,986$12,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,924.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 49c | 23,672$11,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,617.83 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…fb0ebacked No | 46c | 23,537$10,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…39a5backed No | 69c | 23,492$16,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,269.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 36c | 23,153$8,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,239.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 43c | 21,998$9,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,647.05 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 13c | 21,951$2,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,918.85 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…29f1backed Yes | 34c | 21,842$7,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,415.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 61c | 21,400$13,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,267.62 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 67c | 21,300$14,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,325.9 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…be3bbacked No | 44c | 20,052$8,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,747 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…65c0backed No | 64c | 20,000$12,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,808.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 46c | 19,987$9,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,849 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 50c | 19,865$9,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,973.97 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked No | 48c | 19,509$9,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,437 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +804.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 57c | 19,140$10,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,197.3 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked No | 36c | 18,562$6,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,611.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 63c | 18,016$11,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,372.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…9bf2backed No | 66c | 17,955$11,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,761 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 62c | 17,940$11,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,902.09 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 59c | 17,912$10,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,355.12 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 46c | 17,877$8,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,598.17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 61c | 17,800$10,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,822.13 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 71c | 17,657$12,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,107.27 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 50c | 17,000$8,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,518.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 66c | 17,000$11,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,850 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…a568backed No | 58c | 16,278$9,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,441.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 37c | 16,087$6,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,073.93 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 62c | 16,082$9,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,940.2 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed No | 63c | 15,907$10,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,040 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 52c | 15,654$8,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,516.62 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…f90ebacked Yes | 29c | 15,400$4,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,856.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.