Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x084a4aac9da433824013ad192196193d7d1bd8293c0fedc9eb7e687909fd1d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,840,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,284,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,840,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 439,864$3,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.92 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 3c | 194,642$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 166,188$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked Yes | 1c | 163,202$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.64 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 3c | 135,719$3,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,942.72 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes | 1c | 90,000$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.27 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…5025backed Yes | 0c | 63,335$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +491.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 4c | 60,000$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.65 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 1c | 35,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 3c | 31,086$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…914abacked Yes | 0c | 26,800$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 1cpaid | +2,400.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5711…2f81backed Yes | 0c | 24,418$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +405.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 22,427$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.94 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 1c | 21,925$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.06 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 20,911$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,733$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 1c | 20,651$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…d2f3backed Yes | 1c | 20,300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…0fcabacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 1c | 18,731$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 4c | 14,172$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.86 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 2c | 12,567$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.47 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…b6e8backed Yes | 3c | 12,101$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 0c | 11,281$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 11,081$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,893$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 2c | 10,830$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.94 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…b517backed Yes | 0c | 10,290$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +632%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 1c | 10,002$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc52…a3b2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41a…d7d5backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…86edbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7c…6e59backed Yes | 1c | 9,368$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…c676backed Yes | 3c | 8,788$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 6c | 8,400$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…0b70backed Yes | 7c | 7,683$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…0f9cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,800$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…34e5backed Yes | 0c | 6,606$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…7512backed Yes | 1c | 6,232$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 6,199$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 6,174$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…03b8backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…0e83backed Yes | 3c | 5,600$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +391%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…da74backed Yes | 1c | 5,235$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 4c | 5,197$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b14…d1a1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…09e0backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…2e07backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…3babbacked Yes | 1c | 4,838$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 3c | 4,697$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.14 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…f24ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,190$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…e254backed Yes | 1c | 3,543$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…1d9fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,122$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 3c | 3,094$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 5c | 2,912$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,838$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 2c | 2,700$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…6a67backed Yes | 4c | 2,632$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 4c | 2,531$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b44ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…47cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,370$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 2c | 2,363$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 2,284$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d2…a209backed Yes | 1c | 2,167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…0609backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…eb8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,811$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,802$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…0f7abacked Yes | 3c | 1,589$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…7487backed Yes | 1c | 1,548$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…c2ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,478$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…11c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,416$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,390$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b19…03ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,364$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 1,257$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,181$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8c…47c0backed Yes | 8c | 1,127$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…0b73backed Yes | 6c | 1,079$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Yes | 5c | 1,038$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 7c | 1,035$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,027$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,017$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…c26abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.