TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x35e3…9188

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
301
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT11633.6%39 W · 77 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 116 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.18
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$738Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$738.18
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$35.57
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,085.47
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.61
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$73.33
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+150.8%+$23.98
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.29
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.68
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$50.04
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$461Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+113.5%+$523.83
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+69.7%+$390.53
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+96.3%+$442.63
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.59
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$984Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$983.63
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.83
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.94
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$206.82
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,350.06
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.15
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.03
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.66
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$523.74
Showing 25 of 116 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT9250%46 W · 46 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 92 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.25
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+484.8%+$165.79
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$176
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
France vs. England: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$115.13
France vs. England: France O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$170.92
France vs. England: France O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$22.56
England vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.78
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.4
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+72.7%+$48.92
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.88
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.63
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+81.7%+$124.8
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+90%+$258.87
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.72
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$40.8
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$27.6
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$30
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.7
Showing 25 of 92 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.45
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.6
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$166
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+203%+$702.96
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.81
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,910Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$2,142.02
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.54
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.17
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.76
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.19
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.23
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.38
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$37.58
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56.04
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.47
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.67
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$96.11
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.84
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.04
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.57
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.96
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+131.2%+$199.76
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.82
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$27.75
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.8
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.52
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.32
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.94
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,243.88
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.95
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,066Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$544.72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$4,658Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,657.62
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+180.4%+$96.44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.78
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$967Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$966.87
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$67.46
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.55
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$26.11
All 13 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$228.04
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$661Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$437.94
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$10.39
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$20.8
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+379.4%+$91.86
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.36
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.42
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.38
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+100.4%+$200.4
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+99.6%+$16.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+138.8%+$172.15
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$468.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$113.94
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,832Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+80.9%+$1,482.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pozoblanco: Chris Rodesch vs Oliver Crawfordbacked Chris Rodesch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$23.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.