Middle East · resolved market
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f7603eb9f8719edb3c4d33a64b73f4ba8260d15a6b8bd44ce58e41c3548c266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 804$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.32 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…cd0bbacked Yes | 71c | 779.76$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 72c | 759.31$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.07 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 69c | 616.46$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.97 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c2…7ce4backed No | 27c | 604$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…534dbacked No | 38c | 528.84$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 29c | 499.12$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 29c | 474.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 28c | 470.42$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 38c | 453.45$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…c7e9backed No | 50c | 382.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 77c | 365.42$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed No | 29c | 349.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 38c | 273.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…1a08backed No | 42c | 236.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 22c | 214.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 65c | 212.48$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43e…97c2backed Yes | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed No | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd683…3c0cbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 57c | 198.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 65c | 172.73$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 34c | 170.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef8…b0f4backed Yes | 72c | 156$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed No | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…37efbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 34c | 95.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 61c | 91.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…74fcbacked No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 73.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 66c | 70.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…4bd1backed No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 68.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 70c | 57.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ba…1be9backed No | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 68c | 48.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 68c | 48.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 39c | 46.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 54c | 45.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…7a8bbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked No | 33c | 31.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed Yes | 75c | 30.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…63b2backed Yes | 74c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked Yes | 76c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…9a5cbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.