TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc327…31f5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
264
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Commodities, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT9930.3%30 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$254.8
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.34
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.52
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.7
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.01
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$165.8
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.3
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.4
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$32.1
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+115.2%+$246.2
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.73
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.7
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.38
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.76
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.82
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.43
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.6
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.6
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT4022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.9
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.1
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+119%+$173.9
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$41.88
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.2
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.4
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.56
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.28
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.2
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.83
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.11
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+442%+$346.16
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.66
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$77
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.4
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.4
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.71
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.49
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.13
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+102.9%+$86.2
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.09
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$92.3
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+997.6%+$600.2
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$104.5
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.48
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+108.8%+$31.26
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+60%+$150
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.8
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.9
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.48
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.32
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.2
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.22
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+142.5%+$115.4
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+270.8%+$369.32
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$93.23
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$50.55
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+76.5%+$221
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.6
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+149%+$82.04
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.78
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.2
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.4
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$405.77
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.8
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+45.8%+$135.1
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+54.7%+$56.6
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.39
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+324.9%+$99.39
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.9
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.58
Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.75
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.93
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$40.85
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$201.9
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$93.2
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+62.6%+$100.18
Prince Andrew released by February 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+184.5%+$150.43
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$46.8
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+31.6%+$55.06
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$307.8
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$59.85
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.39
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$42.13
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.12
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.2
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.03
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$35
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.39
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advancebacked Ghana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.6
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$82.99
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.96
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$9.2
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.54
All 21 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $850B by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.6
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.52
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.33
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.16
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.7
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-76.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+37.5%+$109
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Under 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+108.9%+$78.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+68.7%+$121.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$27.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$80.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$54.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.