IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9319e7f316532c47f6865fa813f984473bda9d67e60af1dec658c3c786767531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,240,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,377,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,240,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 24c | 144,275$34,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,921.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…d685backed No | 75c | 70,000$52,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 75c | 48,443$36,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,095.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…470ebacked Yes | 15c | 39,022$5,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,875.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 11c | 36,690$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed No | 77c | 32,877$25,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,591.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…8717backed Yes | 5c | 22,757$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…a140backed Yes | 15c | 14,143$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…776fbacked Yes | 15c | 13,840$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 12,875$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 15c | 12,000$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 9c | 10,338$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 77c | 10,156$7,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 5c | 9,191$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed Yes | 5c | 9,022$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 7c | 7,611$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 13c | 7,500$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 15c | 7,498$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 14c | 6,673$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…9d3cbacked No | 70c | 6,628$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 15c | 6,552$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…f3adbacked No | 72c | 6,000$4,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 13c | 5,707$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 25c | 5,645$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.03 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 19c | 5,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 69c | 5,115$3,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455b…59f2backed No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…9251backed Yes | 8c | 4,985$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 16c | 4,550$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,516$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,449$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.24 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes | 15c | 4,407$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…0720backed Yes | 21c | 4,400$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 12c | 4,225$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 4,135$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 4c | 3,885$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,801$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 15c | 3,798$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes | 20c | 3,713$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,708$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…baecbacked No | 76c | 3,500$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 29c | 3,450$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…9cc5backed Yes | 12c | 3,433$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes | 23c | 3,425$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 70c | 3,315$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.13 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 78c | 3,198$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 18c | 2,998$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…21edbacked No | 80c | 2,886$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 23c | 2,663$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 2,613$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.19 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…7bccbacked Yes | 15c | 2,600$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…ea43backed Yes | 12c | 2,584$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,529$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…31e6backed Yes | 10c | 2,468$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…1ccfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,200$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…4a62backed No | 79c | 2,169$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 2,117$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…2b8ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,017$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba55…af02backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…8c5abacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de8…9b10backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…8718backed Yes | 13c | 1,928$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,891$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,881$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 31c | 1,808$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.86 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,778$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…c1a7backed No | 80c | 1,777$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 17c | 1,769$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 1,750$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.73 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed No | 70c | 1,681$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…16acbacked Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 72c | 1,658$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 78c | 1,555$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 19c | 1,542$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…a1ecbacked Yes | 15c | 1,531$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed No | 78c | 1,510$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 4c | 1,498$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…315ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,484$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed No | 69c | 1,445$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…3297backed Yes | 16c | 1,404$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 1,400$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Yes | 17c | 1,400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f34…c587backed No | 74c | 1,350$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…cc69backed Yes | 8c | 1,346$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 12c | 1,301$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…165bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,300$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 19c | 1,292$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…9e91backed No | 70c | 1,267$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…eaedbacked Yes | 20c | 1,263$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,248$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 69c | 1,238$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…f5c4backed No | 74c | 1,216$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…56d5backed Yes | 19c | 1,210$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.