IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f4b9f2f79e5664cacdf4afacde6c45e59a9e4abedf7b8d10bf5f07307f9566f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,517,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,914,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,517,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 15c | 459,302$67,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,355.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 15c | 126,156$18,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,402.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 8c | 63,300$5,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,201.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…cabbbacked Yes | 10c | 61,856$6,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,028.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 6c | 49,904$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,964.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 7c | 48,900$3,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 13c | 35,369$4,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,430.22 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…470ebacked Yes | 7c | 33,096$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b53cbacked Yes | 17c | 25,327$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…fd95backed Yes | 17c | 25,327$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 10c | 22,806$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 18c | 21,572$3,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,895.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…a140backed Yes | 6c | 20,800$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 8c | 20,464$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 19,814$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…315ebacked Yes | 9c | 19,451$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes | 9c | 16,225$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 6c | 16,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba55…af02backed Yes | 7c | 15,597$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes | 15c | 13,466$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 6c | 11,489$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 7c | 11,027$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…7442backed Yes | 17c | 10,153$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 9,550$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.37 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 8c | 9,286$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 7c | 9,211$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 12c | 8,213$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…31ebbacked Yes | 10c | 7,825$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…29f1backed Yes | 7c | 7,777$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 7,627$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.66 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 19c | 6,680$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…6115backed Yes | 16c | 6,188$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes | 11c | 6,040$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed Yes | 14c | 6,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,944$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…498bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,702$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…0720backed Yes | 9c | 5,698$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,185$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 4,977$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed No | 80c | 4,889$3,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb35…f20fbacked Yes | 17c | 4,688$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…d006backed Yes | 6c | 4,657$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 4c | 4,430$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked Yes | 7c | 4,325$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…fc58backed Yes | 10c | 4,048$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…16acbacked Yes | 12c | 4,041$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,954$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…4d05backed Yes | 10c | 3,872$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 10c | 3,609$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.46 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 10c | 3,588$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,515$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…14f3backed Yes | 6c | 3,467$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,296$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 6c | 3,158$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…69acbacked Yes | 6c | 3,095$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 3,028$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…b6a3backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…aeb5backed Yes | 2c | 2,867$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 2,829$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.03 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…91f2backed Yes | 8c | 2,557$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…309ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,555$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 11c | 2,500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes | 8c | 2,432$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 2,414$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…423abacked Yes | 10c | 2,200$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 2,183$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,171$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,103$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 9c | 2,065$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 5c | 2,030$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,974$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…16dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,778$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,721$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…732bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,707$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 13c | 1,686$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.39 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437d…6c11backed Yes | 6c | 1,625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed Yes | 9c | 1,590$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,564$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,550$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,483$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 7c | 1,413$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…5627backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…b7cdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…654abacked Yes | 14c | 1,126$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 10c | 1,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…56d5backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…41a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,097$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,034$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 1,031$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fa…e309backed Yes | 4c | 1,030$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,013$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.