IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75522f5e64d8a8382ef0c538a90b10203871798f1306a950252884d8d160b769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 2c | 54,295$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…654abacked Yes | 2c | 20,252$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 2c | 17,510$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfe…c691backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…6d57backed Yes | 2c | 11,494$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 1c | 11,264$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…fc58backed Yes | 3c | 9,069$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3071…0463backed Yes | 1c | 8,492$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,600$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,366$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,816$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 2c | 2,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b1…538cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,380$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…d006backed Yes | 3c | 1,879$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,797$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,703$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…d902backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…aa54backed Yes | 3c | 1,506$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 2c | 1,488$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,476$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 1c | 1,458$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…3e53backed Yes | 1c | 1,427$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 1c | 1,274$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…706ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,255$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…dde6backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…5f0ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,042$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…5409backed Yes | 2c | 1,035$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…f39cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…1d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 869.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 726.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 2c | 685.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 2c | 642.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 3c | 599.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…3b90backed Yes | 3c | 453.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.