IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf471786ca9608b18a61e1f555681428c80ad2a2695fdd2df69e796defff9f897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,868,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,906,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,868,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,043 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 35c | 192,830$66,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,569.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…3212backed No | 73c | 106,309$77,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,922.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 90,548$67,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,389.93 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 70c | 71,954$50,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,284.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 72c | 48,341$34,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,724.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed No | 71c | 40,040$28,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,431.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes | 31c | 40,007$12,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,498.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked No | 52c | 40,000$20,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,306.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 27c | 40,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…470ebacked Yes | 30c | 32,357$9,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,583.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked No | 54c | 32,157$17,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,944.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…37e1backed No | 75c | 29,641$22,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,433.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 32c | 29,417$9,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,407.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…d2eebacked No | 72c | 21,224$15,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,848.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 33c | 21,223$6,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,990.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 19,607$15,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,497.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 24c | 18,777$4,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,544.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…9251backed Yes | 28c | 17,704$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 18c | 17,209$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 30c | 17,125$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,150.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592f…8fe4backed Yes | 21c | 16,349$3,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,509.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes | 44c | 15,958$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2051…4542backed Yes | 31c | 15,760$4,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,885.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 14c | 15,238$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…0600backed No | 51c | 14,921$7,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,327.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 27c | 14,000$3,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,759.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 69c | 13,875$9,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,322.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked No | 63c | 13,857$8,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,062.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 67c | 13,765$9,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 70c | 13,362$9,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked No | 62c | 13,000$8,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,940 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 60c | 12,841$7,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,138.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 71c | 11,913$8,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,506.58 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 74c | 11,819$8,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.77 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 48c | 10,640$5,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,108.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…96babacked No | 70c | 10,200$7,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9680…0263backed No | 56c | 10,185$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,485.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 26c | 10,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked Yes | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,299.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be6…330fbacked Yes | 23c | 9,943$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…5b3abacked Yes | 43c | 9,431$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 64c | 9,400$5,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,429.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…793fbacked Yes | 28c | 9,000$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 69c | 8,900$6,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 8,687$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.48 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes | 39c | 8,658$3,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,351.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…48a6backed No | 66c | 8,545$5,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 62c | 8,477$5,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 68c | 8,245$5,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes | 1c | 8,051$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…96ebbacked Yes | 25c | 7,922$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd5…82c9backed Yes | 27c | 7,407$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 7,110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 57c | 7,068$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 59c | 7,059$4,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…a49ebacked No | 51c | 7,012$3,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,401.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 57c | 7,000$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 36c | 6,961$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.61 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 6,925$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 23c | 6,640$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 71c | 6,500$4,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…155dbacked No | 78c | 6,396$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked No | 73c | 6,282$4,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed No | 60c | 6,083$3,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 12c | 6,040$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked No | 75c | 5,993$4,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked No | 67c | 5,938$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 65c | 5,596$3,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e5…dad8backed Yes | 3c | 5,465$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 34c | 5,372$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…f3adbacked No | 56c | 5,318$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed No | 65c | 5,300$3,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f1…b762backed Yes | 44c | 5,125$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 74c | 5,029$3,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 62c | 5,000$3,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 30c | 4,977$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 11c | 4,970$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 32c | 4,803$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070a…8961backed Yes | 42c | 4,720$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 71c | 4,600$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 58c | 4,486$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.91 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 24c | 4,469$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 43c | 4,368$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 30c | 4,343$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…3d6ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,306$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 78c | 4,222$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 60c | 4,095$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.9 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 67c | 4,000$2,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 4,000$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17d…f27ebacked No | 64c | 4,000$2,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 27c | 4,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed No | 64c | 3,934$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 69c | 3,833$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 61c | 3,796$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed Yes | 14c | 3,731$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 51c | 3,642$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 63c | 3,620$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.