TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf66f…8e0c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5937.3%22 W · 37 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 59 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+36%+$179.84
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$54.07
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.1
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+155.6%+$101.12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.72
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$59.9
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$122.58
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$73.45
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$97.22
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.66
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Showing 25 of 59 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,333
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,747Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+30%+$823.48
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$888Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$888
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+30.1%+$168.47
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$14,928Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+30%+$4,477.73
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$162.97
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$252
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$178.48
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$393.21
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$593Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$593.5
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+34.6%+$345.6
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will $GOAT be listed first on Binance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+35.1%+$87.84
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$550
No Eigenlayer token launch in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$14
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$586Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$586.04
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,300
Files proving Epstein or Maxwell were Mossad released before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,053Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,053.47
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+37%+$1,549.73
Will Prince Andrew be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+135.3%+$1,623.74
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+97%+$213.49
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+80.6%+$805.51
Will Ehud Barak be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+155.4%+$233.13
Kash Patel releases Epstein files on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$752Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$752.22
Election certified on January 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$34.5
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-70.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,148.8
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,330Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+112.4%+$1,494.76
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$15
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$150
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$950Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+69%+$655.71
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 20?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$365.09
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$1,038.59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$292.48
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,535Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,535
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+91.4%+$913.89
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+91.2%+$2,808.77
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,500
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,850Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,850
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-65.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Hoffman vs. Warwickbacked Hoffman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+30.6%+$3.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,500
UK civil war in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Maduro out before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$147.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$433.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.