Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb1ae961e30733e7857ebb425b5f6449fa8032de13f32c1c6e447a0c3801ca04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,740,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,021,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,740,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 695 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ffe…094dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,346,958$5,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,346.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…da94backed Yes | 0c | 5,346,632$5,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,346.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…73dbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,343,953$5,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,343.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…c6f9backed Yes | 0c | 5,278,271$5,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,278.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 811,413$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.91 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 500,763$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.62 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 1c | 460,168$6,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,441.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…bf8fbacked Yes | 2c | 449,482$8,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,709.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 2c | 300,000$6,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,927.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Yes | 3c | 259,262$8,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,650.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 3c | 211,579$7,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,068.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 205,605$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.25 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1138…e410backed Yes | 4c | 194,187$6,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,986.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 1c | 192,020$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes | 0c | 189,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…065bbacked Yes | 2c | 183,893$3,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca9…558dbacked Yes | 0c | 179,176$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 159,887$3,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.49 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 2c | 147,363$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +559.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 145,577$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.18 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 1c | 133,431$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 0c | 132,893$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.83 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes | 0c | 124,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…ef15backed Yes | 3c | 122,907$4,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,121.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…c652backed Yes | 1c | 110,515$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b5…af57backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 3c | 100,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…183cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed Yes | 0c | 99,900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…417cbacked Yes | 2c | 96,241$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 2c | 88,815$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.96 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 2c | 86,319$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.64 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 71,756$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.58 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 4c | 64,393$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…ab44backed Yes | 4c | 64,136$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…0938backed Yes | 3c | 63,743$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ace…a5c6backed Yes | 2c | 62,510$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 0c | 59,337$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…968ebacked Yes | 5c | 58,268$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf739…c79fbacked Yes | 2c | 57,039$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 0c | 55,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ca…aa1bbacked Yes | 3c | 53,550$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…2c73backed Yes | 3c | 53,086$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…c6afbacked Yes | 1c | 52,810$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…00f2backed Yes | 3c | 51,709$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…2295backed Yes | 0c | 51,319$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,677$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2703backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed Yes | 2c | 50,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 0c | 49,200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 2c | 48,452$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…0007backed Yes | 3c | 47,680$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 1c | 47,658$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 45,491$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.43 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 2c | 45,382$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.36 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe389…8a2cbacked Yes | 2c | 44,079$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…384dbacked Yes | 2c | 43,091$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 3c | 41,731$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 2c | 40,428$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.98 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…34e1backed Yes | 2c | 40,174$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 0c | 36,991$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed Yes | 2c | 35,936$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 2c | 35,630$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6ebabacked Yes | 1c | 34,412$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 2c | 34,000$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1095…b109backed Yes | 2c | 33,652$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0d…0aa4backed Yes | 3c | 33,517$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2468…cd51backed Yes | 1c | 33,339$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 32,974$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…4852backed Yes | 2c | 32,622$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 31,808$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeeb…e6b0backed Yes | 2c | 31,570$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a8…4d89backed Yes | 1c | 31,532$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…e041backed Yes | 2c | 31,047$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 30,738$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.7 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…28b9backed Yes | 1c | 30,641$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…859fbacked Yes | 2c | 30,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e51…e8adbacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 4c | 29,865$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 4c | 29,797$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 26,752$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.65 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 3c | 26,401$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.88 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 1c | 25,849$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.2 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d8…7750backed Yes | 1c | 25,616$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 2c | 25,572$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.1 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…de16backed Yes | 0c | 25,560$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…1ca1backed Yes | 2c | 25,247$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…d84dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…88bdbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 25,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.04 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5a…c90bbacked Yes | 3c | 24,928$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 2c | 24,912$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes | 3c | 24,747$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 24,645$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.27 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95d9backed Yes | 0c | 24,622$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…8d31backed Yes | 1c | 24,550$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.