TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf27d…e6d3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
546
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 58 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT15436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 154 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$824Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+118.5%+$976.15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.66
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.16
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.76
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.33
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,191Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+103.7%+$3,308.84
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+235.5%+$46.74
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.67
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.63
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,074Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+178%+$1,912.87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$931Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$931.43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$204
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.85
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$982Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$981.66
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+165.1%+$591.87
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+188.1%+$914
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.61
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+205.8%+$343.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+154.2%+$874.72
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,563Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,563.25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,652Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,651.92
Showing 25 of 154 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT6937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.49
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.02
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.72
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$537Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$536.59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,433Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+171.8%+$4,178.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$894Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$894.46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$897Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$897.07
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.44
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+434.9%+$492.85
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$598Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+198.6%+$1,187.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+252.7%+$281.78
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+172.6%+$1,186.98
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$749Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+269.7%+$2,021.59
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$239.37
Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$116.66
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+137.6%+$282.84
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.77
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,640Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+132.2%+$4,813.54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$140.68
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT6322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$299
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.99
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$805Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$804.91
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.81
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.99
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$355.68
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.06
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+166.1%+$219.54
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.43
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.87
Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.87
Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.59
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.83
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+342%+$309.5
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.42
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.31
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.21
Will Blake Miguez be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.37
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.38
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$57.75
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.35
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT5121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+266.1%+$443.7
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$432.21
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.32
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$649.61
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.51
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.81
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$6.76
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.14
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.51
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+118%+$367.41
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$488.8
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,547Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,547.18
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.93
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,583Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+570.1%+$9,026.99
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.49
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,108.37
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.67
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$4,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,874
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$5,753Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,753.35
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,062Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,062.45
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.14
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$554.99
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$693Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$692.69
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+411.8%+$816.46
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT4630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.5
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.25
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.89
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.03
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+203.8%+$201
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$701Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$335.13
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$8.31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.21
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$230.98
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$186.72
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$775Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$775.14
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$197.78
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$245.99
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+217%+$806.51
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$298.81
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$646.7
Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$64.21
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+100.5%+$92.03
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$393.99
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$774Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$773.67
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$327.91
Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$101.21
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+118.7%+$173.97
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT4318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+180.9%+$208.87
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.22
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$709Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$708.9
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$409Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$408.5
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,054.29
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.04
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.08
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.26
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$367.84
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+180.9%+$643.9
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+228.2%+$208.6
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.76
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$440.1
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$765Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+129.8%+$992.44
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$767Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+504.2%+$3,867.16
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+523.4%+$1,447.3
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$215.2
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+2,262.3%+$2,161.6
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$44.68
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$21.78
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+83.7%+$53.16
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT290%0 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.25
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.97
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.59
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.82
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.4
Will Jon M. Chu win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$18.62
Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.67
Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.71
Will Jafar Panahi win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.22
Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$53.56
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$37.41
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.73
Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$23.91
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50.37
Will Highest 2 Lowest win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will 28 Years Later win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Weapons win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Christy win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Bugonia win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Die My Love win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Hamnet win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will After the Hunt win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Kiss of the Spider Woman win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.96
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.12
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$956Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$956.04
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$926Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$926.1
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$152
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+249.3%+$159.61
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.77
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.06
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.04
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+75.4%+$86
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$778Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+378.8%+$2,945.98
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$218.07
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+107.9%+$132.35
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66.96
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123.08
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$363.75
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$526.92
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$106.5
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.57
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$279.4
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$354.08
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$679Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$679.1
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$237.08
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.78
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.73
Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.22
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.63
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.38
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.19
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.22
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.38
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.28
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$894Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$894.36
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$36.74
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$632.78
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+122.2%+$75.13
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$767Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$767.02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+888.1%+$2,246.65
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$65.46
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$146.9
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$223.6
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$51
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$142.5
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$26.05
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.53
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.21
All 23 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+184.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+797.2%+$1,136.53
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$432.14
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$421.72
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$282
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$480.14
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+383.9%+$793.43
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+683.5%+$3,738.51
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,173Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+923%+$10,826.99
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$547.96
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+281.9%+$221.11
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$851Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$851.11
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.66
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+30.6%+$6.73
All 13 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$129
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.