TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,002,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,695,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,002,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,706 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80c6…3e50backed No4c509,004$18,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,773.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked No6c443,519$28,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,538.4870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No6c68,135$3,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,791.117032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x844e…4f41backed Yes78c52,438$40,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,759.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed No9c43,877$3,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,884.2580%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No5c41,644$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.7634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked No2c37,540$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.4590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No16c27,627$4,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,432.368815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No13c23,766$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,104.828923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb187…44a9backed Yes78c22,784$17,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+118.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd311…61b4backed No3c22,765$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.01230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1327…0119backed No12c17,776$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Yes80c16,990$13,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,398.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb24c…eefebacked No14c15,927$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No17c13,637$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.62429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No16c13,331$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.753813.2%5 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No37c13,241$4,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,850.993221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f21…b935backed No8c12,919$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed No8c12,000$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.96450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c11,206$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.653042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes72c10,739$7,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,047.414360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x811c…6e0fbacked No18c10,564$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes77c10,161$7,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.381250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab0c…371cbacked No13c10,147$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked Yes77c10,000$7,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.631060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No4c9,551$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.38547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No7c9,038$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No8c8,985$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.421717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No16c8,733$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.63315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf35a…2c15backed Yes78c8,481$6,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No6c8,339$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.691491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No6c8,334$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.1921713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c8,284$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.712792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7a…f429backed No6c8,197$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa81a…216bbacked Yes76c8,182$6,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No30c7,564$2,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.114017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No29c7,341$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.7215452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa816…305abacked No7c7,018$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes65c6,417$4,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.131711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked Yes78c6,413$5,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.252445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No6c6,151$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.21790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes79c6,037$4,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.6226312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c5,937$4,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.7945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No3c5,862$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.721723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3d5…0b52backed No30c5,668$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No5c5,486$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.93731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee6…829cbacked Yes68c5,083$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c4,966$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.581,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No4c4,861$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.915813.8%8 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No2c4,632$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.42590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb9…bdd4backed Yes75c4,527$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.851030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No15c4,326$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.638942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes63c4,322$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.163046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed No8c4,280$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…5a97backed Yes79c4,275$3,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.443100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c01…797dbacked No10c4,247$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1232…6158backed No2c4,028$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No9c4,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36011425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…b56abacked Yes75c3,970$2,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No8c3,913$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.637943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…1f80backed No35c3,800$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a5…caaabacked Yes66c3,622$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94cc…1df5backed No9c3,612$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes67c3,558$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17518323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ff…fe1abacked No6c3,473$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes58c3,461$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.963647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No7c3,284$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.83330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No4c3,200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1136291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No49c3,176$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.742142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No0c3,149$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0b…9dc0backed Yes78c2,841$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked No14c2,821$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes53c2,816$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.5310338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No2c2,700$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ca…198bbacked Yes72c2,689$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.941163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe640…0bf0backed Yes71c2,682$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes52c2,679$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.623240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No9c2,658$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes70c2,566$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.873231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9652…d0a0backed Yes79c2,540$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.451566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Yes58c2,523$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.473100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed No29c2,502$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3731…9afcbacked Yes69c2,422$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.66560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed No18c2,401$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.056010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes64c2,259$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.541450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed Yes78c2,244$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.612050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb73e…7204backed Yes71c2,244$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes79c2,234$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.174729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb837…38dbbacked No33c2,214$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No30c2,197$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.8320148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1424…1edebacked Yes80c2,162$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c99…0a54backed Yes63c2,162$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2e…220dbacked Yes65c2,148$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No6c2,098$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.383834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c26…1432backed Yes72c2,090$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.7650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd7…732abacked Yes73c2,072$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x413a…0008backed No20c2,020$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9935…ff83backed No15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a65…0143backed Yes62c1,954$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.