AI · resolved market
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b97e8e982e7ffc316526077c0fb30aa97e9ddb32961596e114576a17719df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,476,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,352,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,476,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 489,555$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 0c | 273,235$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes | 0c | 229,997$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 134,972$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.92 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 112,249$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 99,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 99,988$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed Yes | 0c | 81,941$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 0c | 74,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 69,449$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.02 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…93cabacked Yes | 0c | 50,490$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 0c | 49,649$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 39,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 0c | 37,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17f…acd8backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 29,849$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 26,238$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…3b8fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…dd68backed Yes | 0c | 19,874$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…36febacked Yes | 1c | 19,488$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,998$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…7412backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…c8d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…ce17backed Yes | 0c | 8,117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 0c | 7,797$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9f81backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 7,408$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 1c | 7,028$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 0c | 6,807$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b3…ed87backed Yes | 1c | 6,166$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2f…52d4backed Yes | 1c | 6,035$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e0fcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,912$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…14b7backed Yes | 1c | 5,243$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…ca94backed Yes | 1c | 5,210$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…daf6backed Yes | 1c | 5,093$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 4,625$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,273$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 4,272$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 0c | 3,969$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,864$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,749$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a6…104abacked Yes | 0c | 3,678$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fea…2462backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…9a8cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,604$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 0c | 3,203$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 2,987$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 0c | 2,803$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes | 0c | 2,803$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 1c | 2,729$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,575$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,573$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,462$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,402$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 0c | 2,402$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,356$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,348$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd023…f545backed Yes | 1c | 2,033$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,007$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 1,958$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…bb5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,846$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…938cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,694$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,691$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece3…c996backed Yes | 1c | 1,574$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,445$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…2383backed Yes | 1c | 908$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.