AI · resolved market
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6786eb0f18f38f4132b3501f142728ba2ed15b72ddc4f65ddde548c509d7f6ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,633,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,949,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,633,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 0c | 598,887$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 492,692$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 0c | 122,225$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.13 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed Yes | 0c | 99,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 99,994$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 0c | 66,639$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 63,457$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 57,399$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 48,052$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes | 0c | 47,913$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…bdbfbacked Yes | 0c | 47,250$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 39,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 37,775$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…30acbacked Yes | 0c | 31,600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 0c | 30,569$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,869$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6158backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,600$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…daf6backed Yes | 1c | 10,976$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…4dc0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 9,418$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 8,419$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…11fdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,042$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…dcfabacked Yes | 1c | 7,922$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 1c | 7,137$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,089$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 0c | 6,758$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes | 0c | 6,348$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa034…c1cabacked Yes | 0c | 5,374$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3e…1c41backed Yes | 0c | 5,104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9f81backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 4,697$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…1f14backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…4194backed Yes | 0c | 4,347$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…5be8backed Yes | 0c | 4,247$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2a…2606backed Yes | 1c | 4,235$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…63e0backed Yes | 0c | 4,197$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…487bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,023$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…0e14backed Yes | 1c | 3,966$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,937$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…ea9bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,921$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…3d73backed Yes | 0c | 3,921$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…64d0backed Yes | 0c | 3,684$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,628$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…0013backed Yes | 0c | 3,532$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d5…3aa8backed Yes | 0c | 3,522$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2520…ec19backed Yes | 0c | 3,482$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…ed7bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,133$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,066$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…5559backed Yes | 1c | 3,032$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…87eebacked Yes | 1c | 3,032$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…dfdbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f2…0884backed Yes | 0c | 2,932$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…9e62backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…f5abbacked Yes | 0c | 2,545$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972d…99aabacked Yes | 0c | 2,243$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,217$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…93cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,897$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 1c | 1,495$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.