TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,440,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,370,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,440,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes2c206,481$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,903.8670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes3c133,910$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,419.988815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes3c124,067$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes2c109,931$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes3c94,829$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,650.022722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd311…61b4backed Yes2c78,867$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.12230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes3c58,823$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.63283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c49,761$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.552920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes4c37,049$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.32714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c35,201$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.73634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes1c32,668$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.7990%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes4c26,342$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c25,937$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.526291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c25,511$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.441491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6602…089fbacked Yes5c25,046$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.69250%0 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b25…26e8backed Yes10c21,918$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3d…c306backed Yes15c21,376$3,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,291.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c20,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef4e…06c8backed Yes2c20,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c19,268$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.9614421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes14c18,100$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.33221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fb…5d92backed Yes2c15,000$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c13,065$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.1810126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c12,282$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.913042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes6c11,855$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.58244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-88.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc086…b1afbacked Yes4c11,151$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes2c10,041$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.34230%0 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes2c9,067$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes2c8,865$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.11735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f70…5948backed Yes2c8,407$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes8c7,952$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.153813.2%5 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes2c7,438$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3911723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes6c7,400$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.966216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ef…df85backed Yes6c7,180$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes3c7,169$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.51280%0 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes3c7,099$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.436010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes1c7,029$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.886726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…b520backed Yes1c6,855$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c6,636$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.91790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf82…17febacked Yes3c6,147$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c6,040$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.82003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb994…2fa8backed Yes0c6,021$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes2c6,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes6c5,972$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.943426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes3c5,945$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.24137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c5,583$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.42731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes3c5,517$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes2c5,200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9864…5d72backed Yes3c5,090$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c5,059$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.292792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6816…b693backed Yes11c4,986$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.86922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c4,970$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes2c4,828$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42d5…00f0backed Yes2c4,761$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2521…a27cbacked Yes1c4,656$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes12c4,304$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.55140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dd…b598backed Yes4c4,224$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df5…9dd6backed Yes2c4,115$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes7c4,048$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.821315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes3c4,047$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.12330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes2c3,966$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes9c3,958$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.621241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1232…6158backed Yes1c3,869$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c3,492$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8618311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes4c3,465$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1343315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes3c3,460$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05ab…1990backed Yes3c3,449$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes1c3,324$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.114818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba6b…c8c0backed Yes10c3,203$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294e…fc93backed Yes11c3,182$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes12c3,118$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.384017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75b1…2e30backed Yes11c3,099$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c2,979$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.25474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99b4…b8dfbacked Yes8c2,971$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07df…8be6backed Yes2c2,920$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5780%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b9…de55backed Yes1c2,906$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.68128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c2…735dbacked Yes2c2,875$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c2,854$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.07590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4162…31eebacked Yes7c2,835$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ca…55f3backed Yes11c2,792$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc3…1f1fbacked Yes4c2,779$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7790%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c2,739$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.372560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54cd…0e3bbacked Yes8c2,702$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4406…eabfbacked Yes11c2,645$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e6…9139backed Yes3c2,503$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.691315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c2,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d80…765abacked Yes7c2,475$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,407$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.941,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c2,378$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.222522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a3…f38dbacked Yes7c2,362$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71c…dd68backed Yes8c2,338$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5a…8008backed Yes14c2,334$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+232.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c2,320$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.212817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47b…051cbacked Yes8c2,261$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f3…e710backed Yes2c2,212$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b3…9aafbacked Yes2c2,163$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9559…42e5backed Yes7c2,154$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0918…2d34backed Yes10c2,154$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fba…5048backed Yes11c2,131$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.