TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,431,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,954,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,431,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c414,666$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.3390%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c377,489$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.4730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c337,967$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.42920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes0c317,335$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.39137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c172,574$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.731491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes0c143,933$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.93812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes0c96,066$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.332934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf166…fb37backed Yes0c84,489$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.49170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2506…93cabacked Yes0c79,408$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes0c68,921$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c64,028$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50640%0 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c39,999$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes0c32,175$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed Yes0c26,666$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes4c23,694$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.693221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c20,662$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.66200%0 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7186…2556backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes1c18,062$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.316010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c16,664$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66430%0 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x173e…2d86backed Yes1c15,947$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c15,193$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.58120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes5c15,172$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.258815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c13,644$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.882218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-67.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed Yes1c12,600$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.14032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes1c10,320$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.56147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-84.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…aa09backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c02…7555backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d0…9ddbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fb…3cc8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes0c9,628$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes0c8,005$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes0c7,302$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes0c7,167$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes0c7,120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…11fdbacked Yes1c7,100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes4c6,531$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.441323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c5,821$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.14700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c5,216$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.112522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c5,151$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8214421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes0c5,005$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.02120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4630…c8d9backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x937f…8dd9backed Yes0c4,667$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3224…a6a1backed Yes1c4,608$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c4,490$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.92817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c4,200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc271…3ba8backed Yes1c3,939$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1b…e401backed Yes1c3,939$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c3,319$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.232560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,247$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.981754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…7b94backed Yes1c3,243$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,162$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.641,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x458a…5941backed Yes1c3,125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ce…dcfabacked Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,746$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.153042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed Yes4c2,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-71.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5a…8008backed Yes1c2,495$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+232.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c2,446$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8710126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa29a…09c7backed Yes2c2,380$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked Yes1c2,265$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.322010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,115$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.742792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes5c2,113$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.542015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a39…1d5dbacked Yes1c2,040$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e49…d44abacked Yes1c2,035$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes5c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…032dbacked Yes1c1,976$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6229…4725backed Yes1c1,970$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes6c1,913$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.52195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41c0…165cbacked Yes1c1,800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…8f08backed Yes1c1,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick1cpaid+1,076.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes2c1,685$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.842611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-34.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes2c1,579$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.784017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b9f…63f1backed Yes1c1,520$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc786…d82ebacked Yes6c1,415$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7c…cf4fbacked Yes1c1,377$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…0975backed Yes8c1,296$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes1c1,283$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes3c1,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+198.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa21f…d76abacked Yes9c1,125$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c1,116$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.86420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6816…b693backed Yes6c1,105$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.28922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes1c1,083$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bda…be47backed Yes2c999.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes4c995.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53813.2%5 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa751…ba09backed Yes3c850$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x157b…5b8cbacked Yes3c810$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes8c712.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes2c701.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.472977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes6c700$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-89%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8677…567cbacked Yes14c696.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c620.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.08865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes12c600$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes10c500.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506334.9%22 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.