TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa29a…09c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Movies, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+143.5%+$14.74
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+618.2%+$932.53
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+413.5%+$76.5
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+32.9%+$4.95
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$39.34
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$31.9
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.8%+$34.41
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$26.85
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$137.01
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10.11
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40.53
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$72.16
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$131.2
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+25%+$3
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.62
All 15 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+632.5%+$173.55
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.31
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.35
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.02
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.15
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.17
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.25
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.86
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.22
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.27
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.35
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.41
All 15 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick2cpaid+560.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$21.91
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+7,161.9%+$1,503.96
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15.16
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15.04
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.55
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$35.5
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$14.95
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$34.57
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$38.66
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.65
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.93
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.15
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.1
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.74
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.97
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.49
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$3.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.09
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.