TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,332,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$697,648

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,332,802 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c56,100$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaae…fa80backed Yes0c33,017$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Yes1c18,508$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0513333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Yes2c17,370$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3365345%294 W · 359 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes0c16,939$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6270%0 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c16,244$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe0…64b7backed Yes0c16,200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes4c14,567$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.382611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b0…cf23backed Yes0c13,333$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.29120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe021…10e8backed Yes0c12,519$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c11,310$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1143944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a57…1be7backed Yes1c11,288$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x960d…b188backed Yes1c10,700$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ac…c79fbacked Yes1c10,700$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa7…7eb9backed Yes1c10,690$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a98…8207backed Yes1c10,690$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fa…2f0ebacked Yes2c10,655$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db8…dd6ebacked Yes1c10,610$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa097…95bebacked Yes1c10,610$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a55…06e3backed Yes0c10,299$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e1b…891ebacked Yes2c10,121$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f6…3fdebacked Yes2c10,111$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc1…84edbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c9,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1d…3358backed Yes0c9,767$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…f383backed Yes0c9,699$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c9,513$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.813228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfec7…c262backed Yes1c9,159$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb76f…77cbbacked Yes1c9,159$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8951…3677backed Yes1c9,137$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767b…9fa8backed Yes1c9,137$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d6e…d937backed Yes0c9,093$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401d…94dcbacked Yes0c9,035$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf08b…e64abacked Yes0c9,015$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25a6…e6c0backed Yes0c9,015$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fd…c74abacked Yes0c9,015$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff0b…3b13backed Yes0c9,005$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45ca…9dd0backed Yes0c9,005$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e56…e6f1backed Yes0c9,005$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d9…44a2backed Yes0c8,995$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c8,669$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.09140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes1c8,460$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.31254%1 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6026…f93abacked Yes0c8,396$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…8b04backed Yes2c7,338$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8820046%92 W · 108 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8590…f9c6backed Yes1c7,128$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.83166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a84…c23fbacked Yes0c6,777$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes1c6,672$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.512711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af3…dc15backed Yes4c6,338$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.071225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes0c6,077$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19a1…5f66backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aee…0b32backed Yes0c5,236$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa31a…44dabacked Yes1c5,120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b36…181cbacked Yes1c5,120$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…6e40backed Yes0c5,120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2788…3c32backed Yes0c5,040$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf52d…0cfcbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c5,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes1c4,330$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.972814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+129.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes1c4,119$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.96414.1%9 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x499f…0773backed Yes0c4,034$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…1ae3backed Yes0c4,028$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f8…e102backed Yes0c4,028$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…e093backed Yes0c4,028$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc66b…cc2dbacked Yes0c4,016$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bbf…c231backed Yes0c4,016$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x459f…169fbacked Yes0c4,016$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d30…f22fbacked Yes0c3,908$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdf…6c03backed Yes0c3,908$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c1…9140backed Yes0c3,908$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes3c3,841$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0118931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a83…a7d4backed Yes0c3,165$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Yes3c3,060$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6360042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde91…9803backed Yes2c2,734$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.592138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef47…8899backed Yes1c2,450$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…e273backed Yes2c2,365$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62c5…a562backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5845447.8%217 W · 237 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeae9…0710backed Yes2c1,986$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Yes3c1,921$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.95425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb79…34fdbacked Yes6c1,676$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e80…245dbacked Yes3c1,676$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb285…68d3backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-56.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes1c1,666$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c1,640$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df9…070fbacked Yes6c1,549$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef90…2604backed Yes3c1,534$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.94728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa582…8ec0backed Yes6c1,512$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862020%4 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes3c1,449$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.95234.3%1 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c1,414$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.56147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-86.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes3c1,400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes3c1,320$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.24130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes5c1,252$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7710124.8%25 W · 76 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c1,238$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c1,196$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.28200%0 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,127$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes1c1,121$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+75.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes1c1,108$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0834032.4%110 W · 230 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa3…e24abacked Yes4c1,051$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.03520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+114.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8661…0e14backed Yes3c1,021$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,015$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4322516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.