TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,078,091
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$721,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,078,091 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c71,610$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.3526136%94 W · 167 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c39,365$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…91fdbacked Yes0c26,280$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c24,803$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2df4…3ffabacked Yes0c17,326$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes0c16,142$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e7…af6bbacked Yes0c16,002$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3647845.8%219 W · 259 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes1c14,503$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6234032.4%110 W · 230 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes0c14,269$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.318931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes1c13,142$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.872711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c12,950$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c12,600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes0c11,946$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.842611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c11,450$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes0c11,434$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ad…e353backed Yes1c11,278$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.391833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf891…35b3backed Yes0c10,880$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4629…310bbacked Yes1c10,664$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56d…f1e4backed Yes1c10,664$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x853b…d042backed Yes1c10,625$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe134…bd76backed Yes1c10,625$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c10,600$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d3…f6cfbacked Yes0c10,210$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf73…6b87backed Yes0c10,148$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes0c9,990$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.78214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-86.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c9,950$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd458…b521backed Yes1c9,730$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.651136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes1c9,224$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c9,105$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3334…67dbbacked Yes0c8,721$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x651e…6ab7backed Yes0c8,280$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.341910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-72.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c7,400$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8672…c3e1backed Yes1c7,291$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501625%4 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-49%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes1c6,205$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.05270%0 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f587backed Yes1c6,204$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.33923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a7…7651backed Yes0c6,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+118.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c5,417$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3243944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c5,319$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe11…990bbacked Yes0c5,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb7…69c2backed Yes1c5,120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c7…fd9abacked Yes1c5,120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88fc…74a4backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013442.5%57 W · 77 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa949…e7bebacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8590…f9c6backed Yes1c4,934$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes0c4,745$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6126547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7710…52acbacked Yes2c4,655$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…38ccbacked Yes2c4,655$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886a…0944backed Yes1c4,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.89911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-76.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf975…5c51backed Yes0c4,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4931…7c3fbacked Yes1c4,051$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.255352.8%28 W · 25 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb654…602bbacked Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5458…0b85backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6402…a05bbacked Yes0c3,950$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde91…9803backed Yes1c3,548$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.732138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8175…b96cbacked Yes0c3,466$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes1c3,396$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.98714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-70.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cc…5987backed Yes1c3,346$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20200%0 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Yes0c3,150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8660042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe407…1df9backed Yes1c3,125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2d…4bfebacked Yes1c2,933$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2e5…1dc9backed Yes0c2,797$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e80…245dbacked Yes2c2,732$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97b7…ece2backed Yes1c2,657$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e4…fe36backed Yes0c2,625$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52544%11 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a83…a7d4backed Yes1c2,562$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes1c2,545$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55254%1 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,545$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.63140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes2c2,468$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4543743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes1c2,417$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.396414.1%9 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,345$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2422516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6a…75ecbacked Yes0c2,287$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8646…ed78backed Yes1c2,147$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…3d61backed Yes1c2,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…79f7backed Yes1c1,975$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.03160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f36…1105backed Yes1c1,875$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…05e8backed Yes1c1,818$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes1c1,631$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.77234.3%1 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35dc…0083backed Yes1c1,553$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c1,544$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42200%0 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…834ebacked Yes1c1,401$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f9…adb9backed Yes1c1,387$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c1,190$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f78…b205backed Yes1c1,162$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…07edbacked Yes2c1,072$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1427445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x967d…a39abacked Yes1c994.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.