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NHL · resolved market

Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,492,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,211,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,492,336 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c208,079$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.8270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes3c60,067$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.23240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c58,021$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.511,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c41,952$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6726136%94 W · 167 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Yes2c35,145$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.31,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Yes1c34,224$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.624358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Yes3c28,715$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.0130551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes2c28,460$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.991,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Yes1c21,247$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7165345%294 W · 359 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes1c21,001$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7427445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes1c17,157$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e7…af6bbacked Yes3c15,872$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.5447845.8%219 W · 259 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes1c14,518$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.35254%1 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Yes4c13,752$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.2211644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c11,685$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1143944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x209f…225bbacked Yes1c10,720$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506a…b398backed Yes1c10,720$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb69c…1da8backed Yes1c10,682$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb076…4862backed Yes1c10,682$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ef…bdd5backed Yes2c10,673$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe539…9ff8backed Yes1c10,540$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d43…36bfbacked Yes1c10,540$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes3c10,511$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.68110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c8,057$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes5c7,975$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.631758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c01…d612backed Yes3c7,733$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes1c7,576$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.71270%0 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes1c7,086$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-84.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes5c5,371$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.4843743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e80…245dbacked Yes1c5,342$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed Yes4c5,130$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.253658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Yes3c5,036$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8448157.2%275 W · 206 L+21.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9c7…aadebacked Yes4c5,023$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.173847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa93…afc1backed Yes2c4,999$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.992330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Yes4c4,471$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.246940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,318$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6922516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes2c4,144$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0418931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b4…462fbacked Yes3c4,095$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.715855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed Yes3c4,043$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.15150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Yes5c3,659$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a6…cb72backed Yes3c3,551$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c3,098$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.933735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick23cpaid-13.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes1c3,083$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.992814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+129.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes2c3,023$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.936414.1%9 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes3c2,651$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.91128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes2c2,626$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010445.2%47 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x121f…4765backed Yes4c2,624$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.21616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…29f1backed Yes2c2,543$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7204…9d31backed Yes3c2,364$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.443330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes1c2,247$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12234.3%1 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes3c2,222$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.38147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-55.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cc…5987backed Yes2c2,222$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50200%0 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c41…42ebbacked Yes4c2,220$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.531315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…1df8backed Yes3c2,217$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.084546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03a…d7c4backed Yes3c2,200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.517749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes1c2,116$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.624546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes4c2,106$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2952451%267 W · 257 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…bdccbacked Yes3c2,098$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x049b…5262backed Yes3c2,069$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f0d…626abacked Yes3c2,053$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea7f…85d5backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe981…1859backed Yes5c2,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.950%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e0…5e15backed Yes3c1,987$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes4c1,971$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8111153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb8…17d0backed Yes3c1,937$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c9…56fbbacked Yes3c1,892$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Yes1c1,862$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0761748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Yes2c1,827$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7660042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes1c1,806$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,798$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.41310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da7…6572backed Yes3c1,773$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e8…cc58backed Yes4c1,694$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.36100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddfd…b9e1backed Yes4c1,685$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1f…5144backed Yes4c1,673$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…fddfbacked Yes5c1,666$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8398…12a3backed Yes3c1,661$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.511637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…9d69backed Yes3c1,635$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83cd…81f0backed Yes3c1,601$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Yes1c1,586$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3412950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe36…92adbacked Yes3c1,581$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f33…0d05backed Yes1c1,569$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd62…a6d6backed Yes2c1,564$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x704f…0480backed Yes2c1,533$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef8…4a8ebacked Yes3c1,469$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes3c1,465$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9318…8315backed Yes5c1,401$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03bd…b422backed Yes5c1,359$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2380%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes3c1,346$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.041618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d04…2b7fbacked Yes5c1,295$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Yes3c1,283$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8410941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6846…a82fbacked Yes3c1,282$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.834656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69b5…0d7bbacked Yes3c1,257$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f4…5944backed Yes1c1,252$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.691216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cc7…94f7backed Yes3c1,243$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c9f…32b4backed Yes2c1,240$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes3c1,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes2c1,200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.255141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0949…72f7backed Yes3c1,194$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes4c1,189$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.561216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…79f7backed Yes3c1,169$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.