TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,977,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,750,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,977,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 420 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1925…4654backed Yes14c176,291$24,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,031.5511644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes13c103,645$13,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,387.441,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf195…8057backed Yes13c90,789$11,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,813.65352.8%28 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Yes13c51,855$6,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,925.265149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Yes14c40,654$5,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,746.756940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes10c25,360$2,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.6311141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes5c23,875$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.964027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes10c21,717$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.391729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes10c16,276$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.61513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes8c14,414$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.649431.9%30 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes12c13,336$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.14616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+65.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes13c10,524$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.536414.1%9 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes13c8,672$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.2952451%267 W · 257 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Yes6c7,961$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.451752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Yes9c7,299$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6906126.2%16 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Yes15c6,130$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9007149.3%35 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8304…f2abbacked Yes14c5,863$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92db…0f99backed Yes14c5,836$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8791…7e7ebacked Yes14c5,825$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db0…f0e4backed Yes14c5,802$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87dd…54cfbacked Yes14c5,662$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes16c5,500$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.42922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes9c5,461$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.26613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18e8…cc58backed Yes5c5,064$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.42100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99b5…8d41backed Yes14c4,760$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4188…8549backed Yes14c4,725$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…0508backed Yes14c4,725$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a4…226ebacked Yes14c4,723$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab1…78debacked Yes14c4,717$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x767d…c425backed Yes14c4,715$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913a…7830backed Yes14c4,711$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x876c…a527backed Yes14c4,706$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e53…fe85backed Yes14c4,695$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dee…0d96backed Yes14c4,679$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d31…6c71backed Yes14c4,667$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2c…ad36backed Yes14c4,665$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab6…46e0backed Yes14c4,664$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec96…f5ddbacked Yes14c4,663$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x065a…8d79backed Yes14c4,655$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…9e51backed Yes14c4,641$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c4,633$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.246811.8%8 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes9c4,332$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.23228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes14c4,266$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.2333652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e4…790dbacked Yes14c4,060$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe10…0daebacked Yes14c3,994$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes15c3,856$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.475137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3454…22b6backed Yes13c3,830$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddb…44c4backed Yes11c3,654$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.732263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cba…a822backed Yes8c3,561$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c3,538$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.7522516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3e…7857backed Yes15c3,401$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes11c3,338$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.8190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes15c3,192$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.8715236.2%55 W · 97 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes14c3,130$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.341910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2348…c246backed Yes7c3,046$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes12c3,000$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3345447.8%217 W · 237 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes9c2,563$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.841816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-61.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes15c2,531$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.622646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a3c…1734backed Yes14c2,482$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+385.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88fd…10c6backed Yes14c2,369$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eef…d0ecbacked Yes14c2,355$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc255…ff29backed Yes14c2,331$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a0…958dbacked Yes14c2,308$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes8c2,263$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes14c2,223$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.99100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes9c2,162$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ad…915dbacked Yes14c2,089$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.62040%8 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes14c1,997$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.66128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c01…d612backed Yes13c1,966$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.57650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes13c1,942$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.836139.3%24 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes11c1,875$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.69234.3%1 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc356…e52abacked Yes13c1,850$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Yes12c1,806$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes8c1,762$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0358841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c1,698$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6760741%249 W · 358 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes12c1,654$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.253228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes10c1,635$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.714247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes8c1,629$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0418931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes12c1,626$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.46147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-55.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes12c1,583$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2174054.5%403 W · 337 L+22.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22ce…3cf8backed Yes10c1,537$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes14c1,536$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.11911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e30…676cbacked Yes13c1,532$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617f…6922backed Yes10c1,446$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c04…97bdbacked Yes14c1,439$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Yes15c1,361$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2538…b975backed Yes13c1,322$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.711020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb79…34fdbacked Yes8c1,297$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes14c1,267$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.43922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…b881backed Yes14c1,266$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee8…2454backed Yes11c1,258$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes12c1,253$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.954949%24 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…d88dbacked Yes13c1,244$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03bd…b422backed Yes8c1,218$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7380%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0d…4323backed Yes14c1,209$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b7d…e345backed Yes14c1,206$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b05…dcfebacked Yes14c1,205$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes14c1,200$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.89119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-60.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x112e…aa35backed Yes8c1,190$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe758…979cbacked Yes14c1,187$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.