TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,850,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,137,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,850,918 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c81,140$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.4326136%94 W · 167 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…7be9backed Yes0c75,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e7…af6bbacked Yes3c67,198$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.1347845.8%219 W · 259 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c58,557$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.45100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes1c57,430$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.78128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-84.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f24…05efbacked Yes4c50,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.991838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes2c46,683$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.11240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes1c35,813$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.6526547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes1c28,433$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.1818931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c27,872$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.011,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes1c26,836$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.262711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes1c23,733$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.71729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes1c23,469$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1434032.4%110 W · 230 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c7…aadebacked Yes1c20,046$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.13847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes4c20,011$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.9227445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc709…5f3abacked Yes0c19,813$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c16,664$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.414027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Yes2c14,151$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6865345%294 W · 359 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes2c13,586$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.6289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes2c12,151$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes1c12,073$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.559431.9%30 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes0c12,060$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.23270%0 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ae…4b60backed Yes0c11,789$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec80…2cd7backed Yes0c11,454$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb1…7747backed Yes1c11,284$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes1c10,994$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.724037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c10,899$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05bb…8ef9backed Yes2c10,279$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3529…66a6backed Yes0c10,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c9,939$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.52100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8672…c3e1backed Yes1c9,763$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes0c9,483$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.455137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Yes2c9,241$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a22…7477backed Yes1c9,158$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bdc…2628backed Yes1c9,158$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae2…c12fbacked Yes2c9,120$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed Yes4c9,020$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002020%4 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c8,647$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-86.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8508…3f58backed Yes0c7,979$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1120…102fbacked Yes0c7,844$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aee…0b32backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c7,289$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.08140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes1c7,232$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7862346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c7,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c6,998$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-65.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ce…97a7backed Yes0c6,574$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes2c6,278$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.553228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ba…3e01backed Yes1c6,022$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16dd…adf5backed Yes3c5,636$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-88%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes2c5,512$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.816613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed Yes1c5,352$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1112742.5%54 W · 73 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90b0…cf23backed Yes0c5,333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.18120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,326$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2822516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c5,300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42f…f19cbacked Yes0c5,150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes1c5,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63df…30a8backed Yes0c5,040$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes1c4,800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes3c4,707$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.722814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+129.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c4,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa29a…09c7backed Yes0c4,688$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.17156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed Yes2c4,627$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.66150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd458…b521backed Yes1c4,484$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.811136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes1c4,418$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2538040.5%154 W · 226 L-16.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes1c4,200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Yes1c4,195$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3716554.5%90 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,801$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7643944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes0c3,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110336.9%38 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+2.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes1c3,730$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Yes4c3,679$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes0c3,675$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x112e…aa35backed Yes3c3,644$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes1c3,469$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.94130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Yes3c3,449$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007258.3%42 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6019…01afbacked Yes1c3,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cc…5987backed Yes1c3,266$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20200%0 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa172…e6d8backed Yes0c3,077$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e14…1c6fbacked Yes1c3,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x651e…6ab7backed Yes0c2,997$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-72.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c2,980$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes1c2,884$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.013520%7 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…21babacked Yes0c2,857$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-78.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7204…9d31backed Yes1c2,842$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5458…0b85backed Yes0c2,783$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…a4c1backed Yes4c2,758$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d50…94a1backed Yes0c2,701$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe332…7855backed Yes1c2,636$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b3…c5a0backed Yes0c2,597$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85dc…0287backed Yes0c2,569$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d5…1323backed Yes1c2,542$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99af…4c1dbacked Yes0c2,512$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b2…1585backed Yes1c2,493$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c2,479$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.83140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes1c2,377$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.34110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes4c2,364$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.031861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes1c2,250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes1c2,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.25100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes1c2,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c2,056$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5224837.9%94 W · 154 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.