TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xda34…91da

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Music, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Music at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT6114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.75
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.57
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.02
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.05
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.02
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$476.67
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.36
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.35
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.31
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.64
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.1
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+203%+$33.5
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.05
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.76
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+126.9%+$151.25
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$51.41
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.07
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.4
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.48
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.86
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.37
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.54
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.34
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.51
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Bruins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.76
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.48
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+390.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.