TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof Celtics, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,790,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,745,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,790,691 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,490 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf784…3e50backed Celtics64c390,555$250,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250,510.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de3…a1fabacked Celtics12c157,253$18,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,4111233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed 76ers32c126,769$40,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,202.719754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed 76ers44c117,461$51,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,998.1766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1333…e463backed Celtics44c91,446$39,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,833.544438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Celtics58c80,982$46,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,567.8434456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Celtics67c75,000$50,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,249.951,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Celtics1c71,565$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.6246426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Celtics0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+59.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96dd…17febacked 76ers33c45,273$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,273.148661.6%53 W · 33 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Celtics37c44,629$16,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,542.281,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Celtics0c40,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19015140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics48c39,496$19,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,107.6985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Celtics5c37,843$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.5536023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Celtics40c37,269$14,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,729.931,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed 76ers33c37,015$12,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,801.1490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Celtics68c37,000$25,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,16059646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed 76ers57c37,000$21,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,91027251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Celtics1c35,953$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.165213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed 76ers33c34,944$11,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,412.1824831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics68c32,572$22,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,149.224,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed 76ers32c30,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,40049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Celtics67c30,000$20,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,099.9220454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Celtics68c29,059$19,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,663.81,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked 76ers33c28,421$9,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,041.9332351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Celtics49c28,400$13,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,816.8864948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Celtics66c28,202$18,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,50022458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Celtics0c27,390$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.897211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed 76ers67c27,226$18,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,063.1776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Celtics24c27,112$6,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,583.9617147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Celtics68c26,949$18,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,325.3216346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed 76ers34c26,455$8,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,566.0510248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed 76ers33c26,380$8,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,572.121,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed 76ers32c25,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,999.7961851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Celtics68c24,529$16,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,558.041,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed 76ers31c23,500$7,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,219.9513534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked 76ers31c20,900$6,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,420.912042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Celtics67c20,615$13,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,899.088953.9%48 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked 76ers39c20,590$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,590.4925248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Celtics68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,60021549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Celtics0c19,500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.85502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed 76ers43c19,252$8,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,969.8169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 76ers38c18,881$7,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,789.571,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed 76ers51c17,247$8,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,391.0611864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed 76ers30c17,180$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,109.3211333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers43c16,821$7,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,608.028,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed 76ers32c16,591$5,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,282.0227241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Celtics61c16,100$9,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7986341.3%26 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Celtics30c15,687$4,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,685.923,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Celtics67c15,564$10,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,45017441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Celtics68c14,706$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Celtics0c14,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8659…9552backed Celtics68c13,929$9,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,472366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed 76ers77c13,823$10,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.2910146.5%47 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+217.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked 76ers42c13,677$5,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,941.7293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Celtics0c13,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 76ers42c12,572$5,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,343.7962144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90eb…db79backed 76ers31c12,318$3,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,548.246060%36 W · 24 L+9.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4fc8…6ca6backed 76ers32c12,250$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,329.871776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked 76ers32c12,116$3,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,238.7116841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf165…2194backed 76ers60c11,667$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.673644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…d2dabacked 76ers32c11,600$3,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,887.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+42.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Celtics67c10,484$7,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,024.0938251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked 76ers38c10,405$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,405.416240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Celtics58c10,280$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00010747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Celtics68c10,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8008763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Celtics0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed 76ers57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.9848845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x189c…fea3backed 76ers32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.922343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb327…e9fabacked Celtics68c9,300$6,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,324540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked 76ers32c9,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,119.9114538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Celtics60c8,800$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,28013544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Celtics2c8,750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed 76ers60c8,602$5,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.1116959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Celtics2c8,528$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Celtics42c8,100$3,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4024553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Celtics14c8,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1207638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked 76ers32c8,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,439.924252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7998…0db9backed Celtics1c7,150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed 76ers32c6,684$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,545.291,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked 76ers48c6,605$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,443.1296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51b8…d25fbacked Celtics30c6,500$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9651225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 76ers35c6,473$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,217.751,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 76ers66c6,412$4,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.361,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21fb…fd64backed Celtics67c6,180$4,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,140.571866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+70.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Celtics71c6,144$4,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,362.32,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Celtics51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.9532846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Celtics68c5,882$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Celtics68c5,882$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Celtics51c5,833$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.8561638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab7…afc0backed Celtics68c5,300$3,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,603.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x910c…8decbacked Celtics68c5,280$3,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,590.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Celtics7c5,268$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35022036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed 76ers32c5,150$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,501.81,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea0…8d74backed Celtics20c5,087$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Celtics68c5,059$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4403531.4%11 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Celtics50c5,040$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed 76ers33c5,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,35017553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Celtics40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.