NBA · resolved market
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 28.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdbb1e9c8b155282d425f6408ebe4553098eee8226a65dbac9f4f264932e1529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Yes | 45c | 213.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed No | 55c | 179.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 59c | 169.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes | 41c | 163.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Yes | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 45c | 94.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3395…698fbacked Yes | 45c | 72.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…28f5backed Yes | 47c | 34.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked No | 79c | 30.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 28.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)76ers won
- Celtics vs. 76ers76ers won
- Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5Under won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paul George: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)76ers won
- Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.