TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,481,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,125,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,481,676 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,601 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed No2c87,491$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.3264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6677…799bbacked No8c84,910$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-70.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Yes63c63,762$40,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,368.4712843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes75c55,197$41,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,789.03922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked No2c51,899$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.85714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+392.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd3…fec2backed Yes64c49,979$31,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,992.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No2c45,338$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea0…950abacked No7c45,221$3,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,039.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa089…fc18backed No2c43,966$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No4c43,202$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.022147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+27.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No9c38,261$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.693010%3 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2030…e89cbacked No0c38,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes50c32,340$16,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,159.2822750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed No25c31,459$7,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,838.968634.9%30 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dee…a71cbacked No36c26,079$9,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,388.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd187…159cbacked No36c23,900$8,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,60410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No47c23,768$11,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,273.13219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed No25c22,858$5,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,653.8516339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No24c22,500$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c21,985$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.4590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes72c21,900$15,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,204.355156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed No14c20,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d67…af7dbacked Yes47c19,800$9,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,542.661040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+156%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes69c19,102$13,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,967.9339449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3945…27dabacked Yes30c14,700$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2901100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes80c14,046$11,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,852.248823.9%21 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No25c13,928$3,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,492.38853.4%47 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked No6c13,740$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.73119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+159.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No28c13,613$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,833.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b24…c4bebacked Yes77c13,248$10,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,047.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167d…cf09backed Yes66c13,239$8,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,485.33944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes77c13,054$10,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.8522140.3%89 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe71a…66ebbacked Yes79c12,700$10,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4c…8419backed No21c12,700$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,66720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked No1c12,308$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9942…926dbacked No21c12,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes65c11,875$7,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.571827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes77c11,645$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.0912649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af7…414fbacked Yes55c10,904$5,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,906.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No30c10,458$3,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,178.3740133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x774c…7282backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed No2c10,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24022036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked No11c9,030$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.54440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No14c8,783$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.882138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed No42c8,770$3,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,647.994131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No17c8,648$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.0918235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd6…18e4backed Yes45c8,477$3,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,667.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ad…8ec9backed No0c8,101$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No25c8,066$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.136762.7%42 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed No1c7,756$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099b…b8a3backed Yes75c7,418$5,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Yes46c7,171$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.9150239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed No4c6,913$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.6185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b9…1d5fbacked Yes80c6,508$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a2…9dcfbacked No5c6,329$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce2…4d84backed No2c6,218$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.571435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a82…4a0ebacked Yes71c6,197$4,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.462934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e1…314cbacked Yes66c6,000$3,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes61c5,921$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb67c…9081backed No69c5,800$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad30…6e8bbacked Yes31c5,800$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,002250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked No2c5,611$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.04128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-85.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Yes64c5,499$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.798555.3%47 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd93c…d454backed Yes64c5,450$3,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes71c5,371$3,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.758856.8%50 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d8…6b46backed Yes73c5,366$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb32f…035cbacked No24c5,324$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddc…a8cfbacked Yes70c5,038$3,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0e…cefabacked Yes75c5,011$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee73…b26cbacked Yes75c5,000$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…2c4dbacked No42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed No31c5,000$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.0410641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ddb…0809backed Yes58c4,889$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9280…a21ebacked Yes58c4,832$2,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No5c4,825$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.34137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-90.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes73c4,800$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Yes78c4,722$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.342240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7d8…f52cbacked No42c4,721$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf90…6a0abacked No11c4,589$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid+104.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes71c4,514$3,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.942,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d17…a5c9backed No25c4,399$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe838…3832backed Yes70c4,327$3,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.9912241%50 W · 72 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No15c4,270$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62019047.4%90 W · 100 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c4,193$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.832,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d8…c512backed No70c4,100$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,87110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e84…5bbbbacked Yes76c4,045$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+193.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No43c3,986$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c3,900$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca5…6dfbbacked No24c3,816$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes76c3,784$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.389939.4%39 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes67c3,718$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.732142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3722…1f0abacked Yes60c3,700$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4656150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…c211backed No2c3,696$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.04714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-61.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3499…e435backed No28c3,679$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x328a…30c9backed Yes71c3,661$2,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.07714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-79.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67cb…6ab2backed No70c3,600$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked Yes50c3,600$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8162326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc273…681ebacked No24c3,574$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1591…2eb3backed No70c3,550$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e18…3209backed No23c3,537$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.