NBA · resolved market
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5c661a6d8c348adb83d13626a52799ac68e11b8497aa1bf0189d85eeb5099c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,363,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $768,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,363,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x364b…f9bebacked Yes | 0c | 170,527$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 111,775$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.98 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 0c | 105,104$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.42 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 37,174$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 30,236$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.93 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 22,626$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 19,703$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c14…2f42backed Yes | 0c | 12,415$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…08b5backed Yes | 0c | 12,415$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…9becbacked Yes | 0c | 12,415$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedc…aa38backed Yes | 0c | 12,359$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…e714backed Yes | 0c | 12,359$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc090…baedbacked Yes | 0c | 12,359$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd864…497ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,296$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…9f9bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,865$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…59e0backed Yes | 0c | 11,766$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c7…110abacked Yes | 0c | 11,766$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…7cddbacked Yes | 0c | 11,766$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 11,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d71…b885backed Yes | 0c | 10,139$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,413$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,895$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,465$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,352$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…b6fcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,248$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…68a5backed Yes | 0c | 7,245$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…41c9backed Yes | 3c | 7,139$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.21 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…6688backed Yes | 0c | 7,126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…f396backed Yes | 0c | 6,311$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69c…b714backed Yes | 0c | 6,048$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…3b47backed Yes | 2c | 5,350$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6769backed Yes | 0c | 5,289$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65f…f5c2backed Yes | 0c | 5,170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…4518backed Yes | 0c | 5,167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,803$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…f4ebbacked Yes | 1c | 4,300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 2c | 4,282$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 4,215$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 0c | 3,427$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2743…e1e2backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…7e9abacked Yes | 1c | 3,122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,062$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…dbd3backed Yes | 0c | 2,765$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…4b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,736$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…cf17backed Yes | 0c | 2,728$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ce…a5a8backed Yes | 0c | 2,698$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835f…4128backed Yes | 0c | 2,663$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ff…ffddbacked Yes | 0c | 2,657$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a9…e111backed Yes | 0c | 2,610$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ed…122cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,570$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…dd7dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,565$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d92…8910backed Yes | 0c | 2,546$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…70d9backed Yes | 0c | 2,541$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…785dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,525$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8531…30c7backed Yes | 0c | 2,517$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c6…6d55backed Yes | 0c | 2,517$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Yes | 1c | 2,424$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…0de0backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a75…2c9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…8306backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…6dfdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,072$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 163 | 25.2%41 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…87ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…5648backed Yes | 2c | 1,764$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,022$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…30fcbacked Yes | 1c | 888.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked Yes | 3c | 461.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.