NBA · resolved market
Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c9539feef274e52bfd0f3fcccfc8bcf8d99360b736d88b86a8e416216d46cbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,738,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,738,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17c9…4004backed Yes | 0c | 365,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…b459backed Yes | 0c | 365,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…bd15backed Yes | 0c | 364,891$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb1…f345backed Yes | 0c | 364,860$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…5e5abacked Yes | 0c | 292,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…6b12backed Yes | 0c | 292,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…719cbacked Yes | 0c | 292,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…9a26backed Yes | 0c | 291,971$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…90c2backed Yes | 0c | 291,900$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19d…e191backed Yes | 0c | 219,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…1f3bbacked Yes | 0c | 206,093$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…9231backed Yes | 0c | 194,259$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62be…8504backed Yes | 0c | 122,145$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…3d5bbacked Yes | 0c | 119,172$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fe…5655backed Yes | 0c | 89,211$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…4c87backed Yes | 0c | 82,614$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ec…f47cbacked Yes | 0c | 78,659$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…4c9cbacked Yes | 0c | 76,908$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…2e31backed Yes | 0c | 75,905$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…01bfbacked Yes | 0c | 73,967$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…16b6backed Yes | 0c | 72,889$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…7f6abacked Yes | 0c | 72,195$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf8…518fbacked Yes | 0c | 65,416$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…5876backed Yes | 0c | 59,997$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f64…ee49backed Yes | 0c | 57,056$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8702…d636backed Yes | 0c | 54,108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…2f11backed Yes | 0c | 46,790$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…cdbcbacked Yes | 0c | 46,590$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…4d92backed Yes | 0c | 46,459$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8da…ce35backed Yes | 0c | 45,468$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ba…73c6backed Yes | 0c | 41,270$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…ca8abacked Yes | 0c | 40,416$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…959dbacked Yes | 0c | 38,330$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…17bfbacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36df…f7b2backed Yes | 0c | 30,240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781a…adabbacked Yes | 0c | 29,820$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2788…0943backed Yes | 0c | 28,060$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2e…cdf0backed Yes | 0c | 27,960$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…95cfbacked Yes | 0c | 27,137$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 26,237$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…52b4backed Yes | 0c | 24,570$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…d636backed Yes | 0c | 23,189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…e88abacked Yes | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfba…4691backed Yes | 0c | 21,580$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…c0c8backed Yes | 0c | 20,140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…aa48backed Yes | 0c | 18,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…16d6backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2c…ee2dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,537$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…c0d3backed Yes | 0c | 16,537$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…dccbbacked Yes | 0c | 15,468$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389b…e1d7backed Yes | 0c | 15,468$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d1…6fafbacked Yes | 0c | 15,468$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…2e35backed Yes | 0c | 15,468$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…884dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…1a8bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,309$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…4691backed Yes | 0c | 12,210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…84f0backed Yes | 0c | 10,490$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…9f18backed Yes | 0c | 10,310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…fc3dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886a…0944backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e76…2a74backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 0c | 6,116$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.