NBA · resolved market
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb207031da5ef9cbded418e6b5b3c5eee24a3a7b22c6ec10053cbaaa67d793796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,416,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,316,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,416,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 393,706$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 2c | 278,838$5,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,133.53 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 278,168$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.17 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 1c | 154,716$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 4c | 141,673$6,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,095.36 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 87,945$3,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,761.54 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde48…30e7backed Yes | 5c | 87,394$4,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,308.38 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 84,725$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 73,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e9…c178backed Yes | 0c | 69,817$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 55,768$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.07 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes | 1c | 52,928$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 12c | 44,877$5,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,179.02 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yes | 1c | 42,529$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes | 1c | 40,888$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Yes | 13c | 38,262$4,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,974.09 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 3c | 37,785$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.08 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 6c | 35,885$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.22 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 0c | 35,279$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…e44fbacked Yes | 10c | 30,433$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…7de9backed Yes | 1c | 29,920$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 1c | 27,660$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.71 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…49cdbacked Yes | 4c | 26,461$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…0e4dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 5c | 24,575$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.59 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…10debacked Yes | 4c | 21,736$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…587ebacked Yes | 10c | 20,827$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc71…15fcbacked Yes | 5c | 20,751$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…6db5backed Yes | 5c | 20,252$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…df56backed Yes | 5c | 20,201$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112b…d02ebacked Yes | 7c | 20,036$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…2facbacked Yes | 5c | 19,688$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…7191backed Yes | 4c | 19,615$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 2c | 19,391$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.82 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 6c | 19,155$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.96 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…d830backed Yes | 3c | 19,130$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 3c | 19,116$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.74 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 19,015$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…4e8ebacked Yes | 2c | 18,777$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ec…3f53backed Yes | 5c | 18,754$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b4…9899backed Yes | 3c | 18,254$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…e47bbacked Yes | 4c | 18,189$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…4481backed Yes | 5c | 18,113$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…4494backed Yes | 4c | 17,964$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb235…b368backed Yes | 2c | 17,936$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…e3a2backed Yes | 5c | 17,936$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…caf0backed Yes | 5c | 17,875$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…2907backed Yes | 4c | 17,874$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…89d4backed Yes | 2c | 17,794$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…44e7backed Yes | 3c | 17,768$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08b…acc4backed Yes | 1c | 17,734$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…ee62backed Yes | 2c | 17,654$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…12bcbacked Yes | 4c | 17,619$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…31f8backed Yes | 5c | 17,543$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…b52bbacked Yes | 2c | 17,531$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…60a1backed Yes | 2c | 17,528$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…c0bfbacked Yes | 1c | 17,422$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0756…3369backed Yes | 4c | 17,385$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9be…9e9fbacked Yes | 4c | 17,364$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,119.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04f…3423backed Yes | 5c | 17,324$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…2d78backed Yes | 1c | 17,265$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…1e08backed Yes | 5c | 17,137$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…bb62backed Yes | 5c | 17,083$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f69…116cbacked Yes | 5c | 17,063$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c7…acd0backed Yes | 3c | 17,047$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 7c | 16,981$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.84 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…2d8bbacked Yes | 4c | 16,960$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3337…1633backed Yes | 5c | 16,755$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…406bbacked Yes | 4c | 16,747$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4838backed Yes | 3c | 16,442$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…0f43backed Yes | 5c | 16,391$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…8b45backed Yes | 3c | 16,385$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…8ae7backed Yes | 4c | 16,350$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…b262backed Yes | 5c | 16,335$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…42cbbacked Yes | 4c | 16,254$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…ae31backed Yes | 5c | 16,237$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…12cdbacked Yes | 5c | 16,184$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…3df4backed Yes | 2c | 16,152$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…e46bbacked Yes | 1c | 16,105$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86af…69d2backed Yes | 5c | 16,098$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…703ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,058$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…86fdbacked Yes | 2c | 15,870$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…9050backed Yes | 2c | 15,864$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…1e65backed Yes | 2c | 15,770$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 15,768$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2da…ec29backed Yes | 2c | 15,748$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…3758backed Yes | 0c | 15,426$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 3c | 15,306$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.87 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 4c | 15,194$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.5 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989d…44afbacked Yes | 6c | 15,059$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 1c | 14,007$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 13,950$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.77 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…f0b3backed Yes | 0c | 13,844$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…7c4bbacked Yes | 5c | 13,761$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…120dbacked Yes | 2c | 13,715$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked No | 76c | 13,592$10,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,268.47 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…a614backed Yes | 4c | 13,547$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…aba7backed Yes | 7c | 13,538$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 13,508$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.2 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.