TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,416,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,316,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,416,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c393,706$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.71140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes2c278,838$5,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,133.53240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c278,168$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.17110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c154,716$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.2119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+159.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes4c141,673$6,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,095.363225%8 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c87,945$3,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,761.543010%3 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes5c87,394$4,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,308.38333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c84,725$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c73,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e9…c178backed Yes0c69,817$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.311353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c55,768$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.0760834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes1c52,928$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.78825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+180.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes12c44,877$5,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,179.0295641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Yes1c42,529$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.363432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes1c40,888$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.791010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Yes13c38,262$4,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,974.0912740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes3c37,785$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.082,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Yes6c35,885$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.2216339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes0c35,279$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0d1…e44fbacked Yes10c30,433$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6962…7de9backed Yes1c29,920$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3343438.2%13 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+51%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes1c27,660$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.7117151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c57…49cdbacked Yes4c26,461$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6df…0e4dbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a73…c046backed Yes5c24,575$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.59175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…10debacked Yes4c21,736$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa77c…587ebacked Yes10c20,827$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.041952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+43.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc71…15fcbacked Yes5c20,751$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1517…6db5backed Yes5c20,252$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fa…df56backed Yes5c20,201$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x112b…d02ebacked Yes7c20,036$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x106f…83d5backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718c…2facbacked Yes5c19,688$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91af…7191backed Yes4c19,615$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes2c19,391$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.826114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes6c19,155$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.9618235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…d830backed Yes3c19,130$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes3c19,116$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.74240%0 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c19,015$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.17844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeedc…4e8ebacked Yes2c18,777$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ec…3f53backed Yes5c18,754$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b4…9899backed Yes3c18,254$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83c…e47bbacked Yes4c18,189$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496e…4481backed Yes5c18,113$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809a…4494backed Yes4c17,964$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb235…b368backed Yes2c17,936$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1e…e3a2backed Yes5c17,936$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744e…caf0backed Yes5c17,875$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31bb…2907backed Yes4c17,874$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf221…89d4backed Yes2c17,794$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6889…44e7backed Yes3c17,768$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08b…acc4backed Yes1c17,734$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…ee62backed Yes2c17,654$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…12bcbacked Yes4c17,619$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc47d…31f8backed Yes5c17,543$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f1…b52bbacked Yes2c17,531$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc1…60a1backed Yes2c17,528$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2334…c0bfbacked Yes1c17,422$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0756…3369backed Yes4c17,385$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9be…9e9fbacked Yes4c17,364$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,119.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04f…3423backed Yes5c17,324$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac3f…2d78backed Yes1c17,265$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x959a…1e08backed Yes5c17,137$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…bb62backed Yes5c17,083$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f69…116cbacked Yes5c17,063$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c7…acd0backed Yes3c17,047$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes7c16,981$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8440133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac1b…2d8bbacked Yes4c16,960$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3337…1633backed Yes5c16,755$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1acd…406bbacked Yes4c16,747$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2247…4838backed Yes3c16,442$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d3…0f43backed Yes5c16,391$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0b…8b45backed Yes3c16,385$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab19…8ae7backed Yes4c16,350$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da0…b262backed Yes5c16,335$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a6f…42cbbacked Yes4c16,254$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a71…ae31backed Yes5c16,237$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8c…12cdbacked Yes5c16,184$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe153…3df4backed Yes2c16,152$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b7…e46bbacked Yes1c16,105$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86af…69d2backed Yes5c16,098$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ff…703ebacked Yes2c16,058$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ef…86fdbacked Yes2c15,870$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe956…9050backed Yes2c15,864$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a5…1e65backed Yes2c15,770$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c15,768$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.177915.2%12 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2da…ec29backed Yes2c15,748$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…3758backed Yes0c15,426$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Yes3c15,306$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.874944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes4c15,194$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.5378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x989d…44afbacked Yes6c15,059$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.721020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes1c14,007$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.112934.5%10 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes6c13,950$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.77263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a0…f0b3backed Yes0c13,844$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad34…7c4bbacked Yes5c13,761$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2326…120dbacked Yes2c13,715$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked No76c13,592$10,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,268.4796447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85da…a614backed Yes4c13,547$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699a…aba7backed Yes7c13,538$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes3c13,508$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.246426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.