TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,969,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,969,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c111,631$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6355316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0f…3910backed Yes0c99,292$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb8…90c7backed Yes0c98,836$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.841758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9215…5debbacked Yes0c54,288$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3594…d3d8backed Yes0c53,888$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe8…85c8backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7d…ec3abacked Yes0c49,711$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.711936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b6…cbc2backed Yes0c49,591$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.592040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…d430backed Yes0c49,510$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb881…eaafbacked Yes0c49,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf871…d408backed Yes0c49,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994d…7ff0backed Yes0c49,210$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.215240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958e…ecbfbacked Yes0c49,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdadd…a12dbacked Yes0c48,510$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.517150.7%36 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x600b…153cbacked Yes0c48,120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.125839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cc9…1b5fbacked Yes0c48,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b3e…c6d8backed Yes0c47,040$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.041250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92d3…3667backed Yes0c46,222$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.226552.3%34 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc59…fca8backed Yes0c43,220$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.225749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…1040backed Yes0c43,096$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.11643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda47…c209backed Yes0c42,120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.124143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4219…88f8backed Yes0c41,894$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.89837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2919…264dbacked Yes0c41,518$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.521758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a24…426ebacked Yes0c41,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.11030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1f…4912backed Yes0c41,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3286…c473backed Yes0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20b8…e1f0backed Yes0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415855.2%32 W · 26 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf963…5930backed Yes0c40,900$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.91330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…19ecbacked Yes0c40,640$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.641030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa31a…e061backed Yes0c40,110$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.113933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80c5…2c4bbacked Yes0c39,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…7ee3backed Yes0c38,073$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x515a…561fbacked Yes0c38,073$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb96…a410backed Yes0c38,073$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.072360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+50.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x880e…afe6backed Yes0c37,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1317…00e8backed Yes0c37,083$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15e…a640backed Yes0c37,073$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39eb…2e89backed Yes0c37,073$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c8…c187backed Yes0c37,070$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.075345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…7560backed Yes0c35,112$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.115054%27 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ffd…2148backed Yes0c33,210$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7315…f9a0backed Yes0c33,200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.23748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27bb…79fabacked Yes0c32,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c51…8ca3backed Yes0c31,619$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.622454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x530c…529fbacked Yes0c31,250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb7…4d17backed Yes0c28,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd52…ffd2backed Yes0c28,452$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed4…4dfebacked Yes0c28,439$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-64.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x461d…20b8backed Yes0c28,023$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.02425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8cc…0d03backed Yes0c27,765$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf656…a48dbacked Yes0c27,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.711546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc736…3e9ebacked Yes0c25,375$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5b…e4babacked Yes0c25,367$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c00…339cbacked Yes0c25,100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4800…6c99backed Yes0c24,887$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f0…c853backed Yes0c24,378$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3389…6484backed Yes0c24,378$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d52…0e1bbacked Yes0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2a…2171backed Yes0c21,838$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.84812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb5…aa82backed Yes0c20,861$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1a…44abbacked Yes0c20,371$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc3…968cbacked Yes0c19,016$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7325…d8cabacked Yes0c18,825$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99b5…8d41backed Yes0c18,181$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb827…b1e9backed Yes0c17,684$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57e7…84e9backed Yes0c16,844$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c15,449$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4546426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6771…0162backed Yes0c13,620$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb622…9c0dbacked Yes0c13,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7e…9ab1backed Yes0c12,980$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d8…a0acbacked Yes0c12,870$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x190e…c6e2backed Yes0c12,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…71c3backed Yes0c12,493$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0528…47f6backed Yes0c12,493$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc8…6fb3backed Yes0c12,493$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd7…63cebacked Yes0c12,493$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc8…7a9bbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa193…8e8cbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd78…6298backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4afe…1b28backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf490…3d99backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…562dbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8b…abbebacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7adb…2ca0backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b26…628cbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe6…f98ebacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc9…ea5abacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd732…1bf1backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52c…f1fdbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb66a…85cfbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5260…7e62backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59b…3e7cbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49c…4f34backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9f7…464cbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd9…d732backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dc…bf53backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3457…4fa2backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d8…5e8cbacked Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e01…cae5backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda40…7543backed Yes0c12,258$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.