NBA · resolved market
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7b71c3cd4c95712735a04e28e44276b3fb1f117a5aaf1602a8944ccc813a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,887,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,887,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3380…11eabacked Yes | 0c | 142,717$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…a250backed Yes | 0c | 142,686$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…a052backed Yes | 0c | 137,380$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 109,641$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…7a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 95,134$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…34fabacked Yes | 0c | 86,874$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc2…6585backed Yes | 0c | 82,625$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb7…b52dbacked Yes | 0c | 66,384$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…dd19backed Yes | 0c | 65,320$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…7ae2backed Yes | 0c | 65,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364b…f9bebacked Yes | 0c | 54,999$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 0c | 52,819$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…32d4backed Yes | 0c | 50,221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51d…e66fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…be96backed Yes | 0c | 49,215$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…721ebacked Yes | 0c | 48,873$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…dff4backed Yes | 0c | 48,745$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…d04dbacked Yes | 0c | 48,151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac05…a255backed Yes | 0c | 48,148$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02b…be0bbacked Yes | 0c | 47,924$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…87c0backed Yes | 0c | 47,881$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…0eb0backed Yes | 0c | 47,881$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa50d…38a4backed Yes | 0c | 47,881$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…e97ebacked Yes | 0c | 47,583$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…af63backed Yes | 0c | 47,342$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4f…c578backed Yes | 0c | 47,265$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf230…5dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 47,241$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f46…c598backed Yes | 0c | 47,020$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…6312backed Yes | 0c | 46,627$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e7…a256backed Yes | 0c | 46,214$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…6f48backed Yes | 0c | 46,214$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…f8d4backed Yes | 0c | 46,214$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…cfb4backed Yes | 0c | 46,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…c4f7backed Yes | 0c | 44,444$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 42,954$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 42,891$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…3264backed Yes | 0c | 35,320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773a…a929backed Yes | 0c | 33,002$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…198abacked Yes | 0c | 32,906$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc422…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 26,009$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…f3dcbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…aa82backed Yes | 0c | 16,004$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…44abbacked Yes | 0c | 15,285$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b91…82edbacked Yes | 0c | 12,939$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…e90dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,449$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 11,989$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…447abacked Yes | 0c | 11,922$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…ffd2backed Yes | 0c | 11,922$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc3…968cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,922$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7325…d8cabacked Yes | 0c | 11,922$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…179fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,922$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…71c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,994$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…47f6backed Yes | 0c | 10,994$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…fad6backed Yes | 0c | 10,908$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a2…0d1cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,443$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…42efbacked Yes | 0c | 10,243$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…cbfdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Yes | 0c | 4,517$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…0582backed Yes | 1c | 4,152$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,948$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 1c | 3,131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 679 | 11%75 W · 604 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…77c6backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…6f35backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.