TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,991,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,991,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb014…5bdbbacked Yes0c215,300$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+110.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea88…3818backed Yes0c148,272$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2580…591bbacked Yes0c146,224$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1815…3823backed Yes0c145,388$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81eb…a3e3backed Yes0c139,365$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48f…306bbacked Yes0c138,393$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d8…bacdbacked Yes0c135,880$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc87e…f4eebacked Yes0c128,679$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4515…0db9backed Yes0c127,869$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9d…e8babacked Yes0c127,280$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ca…35cbbacked Yes0c119,435$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbeb…079cbacked Yes0c118,539$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146f…e7d5backed Yes0c117,971$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…34fabacked Yes0c117,809$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e7…327dbacked Yes0c117,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a21…8d97backed Yes0c116,562$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa860…53bebacked Yes0c116,562$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6b…dc9bbacked Yes0c116,559$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ada…f932backed Yes0c116,423$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e0…bfd9backed Yes0c116,225$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8985…a77abacked Yes0c115,807$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-62.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa50d…38a4backed Yes0c114,764$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…9441backed Yes0c114,257$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece6…b76cbacked Yes0c114,257$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa034…74fbbacked Yes0c114,230$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98e…5d21backed Yes0c114,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5736…7236backed Yes0c113,829$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-80.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ee…9cf3backed Yes0c113,349$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.353438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce74…7ae2backed Yes0c113,233$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.23933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8768…9461backed Yes0c113,115$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8257…50d1backed Yes0c112,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfff…5a28backed Yes0c111,410$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.411050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe968…e6e6backed Yes0c111,060$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081f…b505backed Yes0c110,630$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.63944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe122…9aa3backed Yes0c110,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430a…6554backed Yes0c109,780$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fbe…2495backed Yes0c109,280$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba7…b408backed Yes0c105,100$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3598…6c41backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c98,493$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.28240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc3…6428backed Yes0c81,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c79…4c80backed Yes0c73,440$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.441172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdb…cb2dbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3451…0abcbacked Yes0c42,221$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.221225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae43…df51backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a43…9644backed Yes0c37,542$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034b…3264backed Yes0c36,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c35,124$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa743…c4f7backed Yes0c34,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c32,380$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3855316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56dc…10f1backed Yes0c31,370$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.37812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes0c30,314$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9448343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd071…92ccbacked Yes0c30,070$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.074250%21 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x89cc…50d2backed Yes0c27,522$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d11…3d32backed Yes0c27,522$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes0c22,288$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.896114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9e…4e9cbacked Yes0c21,502$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…be96backed Yes0c17,874$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.873438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7667…e90dbacked Yes0c17,848$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f8…f29cbacked Yes0c16,930$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.933855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+26.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes1c14,597$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c14,288$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.31440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…447abacked Yes0c11,476$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd52…ffd2backed Yes0c11,476$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…d3cfbacked Yes0c11,404$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ad…cafdbacked Yes0c10,680$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes0c8,348$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.75628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes8c5,922$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.6840133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes5c5,625$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4540448.3%195 W · 209 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a5…fae0backed Yes7c4,751$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.23138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c4,406$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.811,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes6c4,071$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.86820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d54…45ebbacked Yes0c3,954$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c2,918$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1660834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8721…483bbacked Yes1c2,671$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2869…d666backed Yes1c2,670$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…0348backed Yes1c2,618$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2534…41c9backed Yes8c2,439$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.944520%9 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes6c2,330$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.05714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bac…486cbacked Yes9c2,305$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8141…461cbacked Yes7c2,283$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c2,062$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.11,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa988…ed6fbacked Yes10c2,026$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d33…065cbacked Yes1c1,961$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-64%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49ff…5471backed Yes4c1,948$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…8934backed Yes6c1,548$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265b…141fbacked Yes7c1,500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d3…246cbacked Yes5c1,329$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6714346.9%67 W · 76 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes6c1,223$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9122750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes4c715$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.735754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe131…174abacked Yes2c691.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-72.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2255…65d8backed Yes5c621.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.851442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de5…e001backed Yes5c610.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.27354.8%40 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes7c595.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.884422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4764…0d87backed Yes5c499.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Yes6c423.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257529.3%22 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc394…315dbacked Yes4c409.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.721844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Yes7c403.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5542845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c8…9617backed Yes8c363.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.33030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.