TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,314,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,314,218 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd7dd…8533backed Yes0c81,790$82 inLost-$81.791330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea03…d73abacked Yes0c81,216$81 inLost-$81.222133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Yes0c56,613$57 inLost-$56.6118133.7%61 W · 120 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c52,929$53 inLost-$52.93340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a3…7888backed Yes0c48,500$49 inLost-$48.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc389…295abacked Yes0c48,110$48 inLost-$48.112638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c46,992$47 inLost-$46.9955316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c8a…d59dbacked Yes0c45,900$46 inLost-$45.980%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad42…905ebacked Yes0c45,760$46 inLost-$45.761030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771b…b76ebacked Yes0c43,650$44 inLost-$43.651315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcf…4272backed Yes0c42,980$43 inLost-$42.98825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f81…ad40backed Yes0c38,479$38 inLost-$38.481931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6231…3026backed Yes0c38,479$38 inLost-$38.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb419…1228backed Yes0c38,479$38 inLost-$38.481225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef0…969ebacked Yes0c38,069$38 inLost-$38.072133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd70a…baf2backed Yes0c37,950$38 inLost-$37.951540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x364b…f9bebacked Yes0c36,045$36 inLost-$36.043435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost-$4095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02f…c2d3backed Yes0c18,828$19 inLost-$18.836442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90da…74f5backed Yes0c17,854$18 inLost-$17.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5d…0854backed Yes0c17,854$18 inLost-$17.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a56…71c3backed Yes0c17,548$18 inLost-$17.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc411…447abacked Yes0c17,548$18 inLost-$17.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb5…aa82backed Yes0c16,453$16 inLost-$16.4540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…d3cfbacked Yes0c16,445$16 inLost-$16.44616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b1…41f5backed Yes0c14,711$59 inLost-$58.5760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3451…0abcbacked Yes0c12,438$12 inLost-$12.441225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa785…4934backed Yes0c11,694$12 inLost-$11.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cef…6321backed Yes0c10,560$11 inLost-$10.563844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes1c9,412$58 inLost-$58.327547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d8…c4fabacked Yes0c7,000$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c6,213$21 inLost-$20.751,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes0c5,873$11 inLost-$11.12730%0 W · 73 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b22…bcf6backed Yes1c5,442$38 inLost-$37.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,333$15 inLost-$15440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d6…0704backed Yes0c4,597$13 inLost-$13.1918755.6%104 W · 83 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes0c4,488$20 inLost-$202941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c4,266$40 inLost-$40.3640133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14c2…26fabacked Yes1c1,871$19 inLost-$18.723710.8%4 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.