NBA · resolved market
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f66a8da2209397d024c9b4748e4d9477f79e640f0e74384d1be1139c86e0297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,576,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,576,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17c9…4004backed Yes | 0c | 195,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…b459backed Yes | 0c | 195,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…bd15backed Yes | 0c | 187,300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb1…f345backed Yes | 0c | 185,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…5e5abacked Yes | 0c | 156,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…6b12backed Yes | 0c | 156,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…719cbacked Yes | 0c | 155,983$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…9a26backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…90c2backed Yes | 0c | 148,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19d…e191backed Yes | 0c | 116,983$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…e646backed Yes | 0c | 73,150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…d3dcbacked Yes | 0c | 72,140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…2fd9backed Yes | 0c | 67,451$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 67,418$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc141…2c71backed Yes | 0c | 67,040$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…4da2backed Yes | 0c | 65,117$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 147 | 38.8%57 W · 90 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…09f3backed Yes | 0c | 64,940$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…2fc5backed Yes | 0c | 64,562$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…fa63backed Yes | 0c | 63,110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…6d48backed Yes | 0c | 56,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…6321backed Yes | 0c | 55,430$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a60fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…432abacked Yes | 0c | 41,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…3b51backed Yes | 0c | 40,210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…af8abacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…6de6backed Yes | 0c | 38,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ca…6d10backed Yes | 0c | 32,730$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc2…6585backed Yes | 0c | 27,647$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…0abcbacked Yes | 0c | 26,614$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f29…f2a4backed Yes | 0c | 26,140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e97…d3b6backed Yes | 0c | 25,760$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d11…3d32backed Yes | 0c | 25,728$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…8c7fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,390$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…f6b5backed Yes | 0c | 25,320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…be1fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…44acbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 24,316$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.95 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da8…60afbacked Yes | 0c | 21,110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…0a69backed Yes | 0c | 19,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x502a…7ee1backed Yes | 0c | 18,890$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…d95dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,629$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…cfbabacked Yes | 0c | 18,280$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c853backed Yes | 0c | 18,232$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…8297backed Yes | 0c | 18,149$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…6484backed Yes | 0c | 18,064$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…50d2backed Yes | 0c | 17,821$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…3406backed Yes | 0c | 17,770$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…3d5fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,421$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…3958backed Yes | 0c | 17,216$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…1357backed Yes | 0c | 17,110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…d3cfbacked Yes | 0c | 16,933$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…cafdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,254$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 3c | 15,655$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b1…41f5backed Yes | 0c | 15,520$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…c07ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,440$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2871…b108backed Yes | 0c | 14,950$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…b853backed Yes | 0c | 12,890$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,554$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…d227backed Yes | 0c | 12,510$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc966…bac9backed Yes | 0c | 10,140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 0c | 10,105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed Yes | 2c | 4,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed Yes | 2c | 1,733$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…dbe0backed Yes | 1c | 1,574$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,573$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 2c | 1,476$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,363$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…0a30backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…eb5ebacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…f4c6backed Yes | 2c | 850.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 2c | 791.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -8.1wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 5c | 501.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…83cdbacked Yes | 2c | 450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.