TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,066,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,066,290 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c48,804$49 inLost-$48.855316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a37…6e6fbacked Yes0c39,146$39 inLost-$39.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f29…f2a4backed Yes0c36,480$36 inLost-$36.481020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-60.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…d9aabacked Yes0c26,454$26 inLost-$26.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc2…d26dbacked Yes0c26,350$26 inLost-$26.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2919…264dbacked Yes0c26,295$26 inLost-$26.31758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b94…c334backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc63…561abacked Yes0c23,680$24 inLost-$23.681618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3b…a3e2backed Yes0c22,732$23 inLost-$22.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9a…fcfcbacked Yes0c22,532$23 inLost-$22.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a2e…7fc6backed Yes0c22,330$22 inLost-$22.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbff…96a8backed Yes0c21,960$22 inLost-$21.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4537…e2b1backed Yes0c21,960$22 inLost-$21.961070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37ad…cafdbacked Yes0c21,832$22 inLost-$21.8360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff97…3958backed Yes0c21,819$22 inLost-$21.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a60fbacked Yes0c21,819$22 inLost-$21.825646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd70a…baf2backed Yes0c21,759$22 inLost-$21.761540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b8…d29dbacked Yes0c21,368$21 inLost-$21.37825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53db…4d11backed Yes0c21,086$21 inLost-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2d…395ebacked Yes0c21,050$21 inLost-$21.055545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771b…b76ebacked Yes0c20,690$21 inLost-$20.691315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea03…d73abacked Yes0c20,407$20 inLost-$20.412133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c51…8ca3backed Yes0c17,400$17 inLost-$17.42454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2871…b108backed Yes0c17,300$17 inLost-$17.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd8…8e68backed Yes0c17,105$17 inLost-$17.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0a…d861backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…3406backed Yes0c16,720$17 inLost-$16.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79bf…4df5backed Yes0c16,480$16 inLost-$16.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d54…db98backed Yes0c15,980$16 inLost-$15.98825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x531c…70f5backed Yes0c15,500$16 inLost-$15.53636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…1367backed Yes0c14,720$15 inLost-$14.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eaa…717ebacked Yes0c14,000$14 inLost-$14812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04db…24fcbacked Yes0c12,900$13 inLost-$12.9728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c12,545$13 inLost-$12.5546426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…f6b5backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d81…b4d1backed Yes0c11,810$12 inLost-$11.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…4dd5backed Yes0c11,670$12 inLost-$11.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf04…dce0backed Yes0c11,308$11 inLost-$11.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4710…1ebcbacked Yes0c10,092$10 inLost-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10cf…85f3backed Yes0c10,092$10 inLost-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$101030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e02…8b73backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+200.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8714…4750backed Yes1c3,568$18 inLost-$18922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.