TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,750,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,750,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf93c…fd6bbacked Yes0c766,502$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a6…ccbabacked Yes0c419,124$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa02…08c1backed Yes0c391,751$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c122,476$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4855316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6056…9ed8backed Yes0c106,358$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e5…d04dbacked Yes0c103,815$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.822138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ee…82d6backed Yes0c101,679$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.681010%1 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick41cpaid-81.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa6d…1193backed Yes0c89,510$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.511957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf056…ec51backed Yes0c87,601$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Yes0c77,362$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3618133.7%61 W · 120 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…8161backed Yes0c72,544$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.541855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa50d…38a4backed Yes0c71,704$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8768…9461backed Yes0c67,634$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6b…dc9bbacked Yes0c66,605$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee17…0defbacked Yes0c65,051$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.052128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e99…611dbacked Yes0c61,880$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.882536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc728…42efbacked Yes0c61,864$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.864337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf1…e655backed Yes0c61,692$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.691711.8%2 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-79.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbc16…8505backed Yes0c61,514$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.513253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa743…c4f7backed Yes0c57,980$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d81…b4d1backed Yes0c36,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3239…cb61backed Yes0c35,530$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc2…6585backed Yes0c33,366$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8157…606cbacked Yes0c31,530$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958b…59d1backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ed…4beebacked Yes0c26,960$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3efa…cf85backed Yes0c26,071$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2928…b217backed Yes0c24,310$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.317638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x207e…3499backed Yes0c24,049$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.059848%47 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4286…a8e4backed Yes0c24,010$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.013444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b04…ecd6backed Yes0c24,005$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.013545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f29…f2a4backed Yes0c20,830$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.831020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-60.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…d9aabacked Yes0c20,830$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3e…c6d8backed Yes0c20,830$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.831250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eaa…717ebacked Yes0c20,750$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039d…8980backed Yes0c20,717$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdada…cc48backed Yes0c20,687$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5469…a3fcbacked Yes0c20,639$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1307…7565backed Yes0c20,528$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x312e…01a8backed Yes0c20,528$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac6d…c790backed Yes0c20,528$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1545…8a48backed Yes0c20,528$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x015b…dd19backed Yes0c20,519$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765d…f4fbbacked Yes0c20,510$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383f…a29abacked Yes0c20,510$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…ea3cbacked Yes0c20,510$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ca…a105backed Yes0c20,510$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa110…cc86backed Yes0c20,509$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3567…ec2fbacked Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2169…11c2backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…39e0backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa4…6775backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba2…beeebacked Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20cd…743bbacked Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ce…0231backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c3…7724backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee7…2504backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6727…9209backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fad…2f3dbacked Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8456…cde2backed Yes0c20,489$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ff…1f5fbacked Yes0c20,361$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971c…add5backed Yes0c20,361$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd103…d621backed Yes0c20,361$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814c…e935backed Yes0c20,361$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fee…b61abacked Yes0c20,361$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6e…4e56backed Yes0c20,356$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b94…c334backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80b9…2c98backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3451…0abcbacked Yes0c19,980$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x502a…7ee1backed Yes0c19,880$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc985…e7b5backed Yes0c19,618$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf174…f603backed Yes0c19,430$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2449…78abbacked Yes0c19,325$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x893c…47e4backed Yes0c19,144$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa431…ab8bbacked Yes0c19,144$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea1…2c7dbacked Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd712…4a20backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb3…9226backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a4…6bc8backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…d28bbacked Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf917…a2f1backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0790…fff2backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf707…f037backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce78…deeebacked Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb18…9c55backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4548…bb23backed Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe12…386bbacked Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d72…ec4ebacked Yes0c19,088$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ad…3e16backed Yes0c19,078$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c18,981$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9846426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ab…d3dcbacked Yes0c18,876$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.884341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c02…2247backed Yes0c18,594$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5998…305fbacked Yes0c18,570$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…65fabacked Yes0c18,557$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5755…11c7backed Yes0c18,408$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c18,400$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd53c…89c3backed Yes0c18,214$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a95…72eebacked Yes0c18,189$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa82…84fbbacked Yes0c18,168$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…1f8ebacked Yes0c17,700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.