NBA · resolved market
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a1b1234126ead9d4a1ac3f8e776c4f11103492fbde6ed962dcf93b9290a4661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,594,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,594,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3470…d002backed Yes | 0c | 156,089$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c84…0cd5backed Yes | 0c | 105,860$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8501…1146backed Yes | 0c | 80,260$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…9a72backed Yes | 0c | 54,285$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc63…561abacked Yes | 0c | 52,985$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 0c | 49,643$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…0defbacked Yes | 0c | 46,519$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 0c | 37,566$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,336$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…3264backed Yes | 0c | 31,649$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…3531backed Yes | 0c | 31,609$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf230…5dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 31,572$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…969ebacked Yes | 0c | 31,472$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed Yes | 0c | 31,466$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 181 | 33.7%61 W · 120 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 24,349$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…dc98backed Yes | 0c | 23,290$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…5ef6backed Yes | 0c | 22,680$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…317bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…295abacked Yes | 0c | 22,120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…10f1backed Yes | 0c | 21,809$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…b0b7backed Yes | 0c | 21,760$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771b…b76ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,413$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…7736backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70a…baf2backed Yes | 0c | 19,166$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 14,910$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 0c | 13,637$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 135 | 36.3%49 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…c4b9backed Yes | 0c | 13,380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…b9eebacked Yes | 0c | 13,330$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…2ea3backed Yes | 0c | 13,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74a…171cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,760$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…314bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,520$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…36cebacked Yes | 0c | 11,460$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c6…fdd0backed Yes | 0c | 11,430$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…1f99backed Yes | 0c | 10,796$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…5445backed Yes | 0c | 10,580$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…0488backed Yes | 0c | 10,460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…b5dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd0…5d20backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…5431backed Yes | 3c | 7,368$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Yes | 0c | 6,967$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…f83bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,880$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…45f0backed Yes | 1c | 5,237$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 1c | 4,332$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,002$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69e…fd3cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,672$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…1601backed Yes | 3c | 3,647$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,454$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…3ea4backed Yes | 0c | 2,681$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…2e8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,186$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…88e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,013$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.