TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$558,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $558,982 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d18…4972backed Yes0c57,119$57 inLost-$57.1216339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c45,495$51 inLost-$51.0446426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c31,251$31 inLost-$31.2555316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b1…41f5backed Yes0c30,495$45 inLost-$44.9960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c19,040$135 inLost-$134.94240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c17,332$18 inLost-$18340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c16,517$44 inLost-$44.1340133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a30…e572backed Yes0c13,020$13 inLost-$13.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes0c11,970$20 inLost-$19.942326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd90…b6abbacked Yes0c11,950$12 inLost-$11.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+50.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd32d…1051backed Yes0c11,760$12 inLost-$11.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+63.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2534…41c9backed Yes1c9,650$114 inLost-$114.054520%9 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes0c8,028$24 inLost-$24.0822750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes0c7,844$18 inLost-$18.18730%0 W · 73 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Yes1c4,803$42 inLost-$41.5317658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c4,729$12 inLost-$11.9660834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes0c4,663$12 inLost-$12.1311929.4%35 W · 84 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes1c4,598$44 inLost-$44.49238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,447$46 inLost-$45.841,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes0c3,653$18 inLost-$17.6941227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d6…0704backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost-$2218755.6%104 W · 83 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f7…d613backed Yes2c1,813$31 inLost-$31.298860.2%53 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f5…a33fbacked Yes1c1,357$20 inLost-$203732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes1c1,249$11 inLost-$11.4618235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes1c1,196$10 inLost-$10.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes2c1,161$25 inLost-$256659.1%39 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14c2…26fabacked Yes1c1,075$11 inLost-$113710.8%4 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$1026124.1%63 W · 198 L+1.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.