TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,006,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,620,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,006,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,058 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes2c337,868$5,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,870.8240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df5…61e1backed Yes52c323,764$167,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167,100.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd008…135dbacked Yes7c143,818$9,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,847.32812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+141%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3cd6…18e4backed Yes11c109,103$11,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,942.721127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ed…5e32backed Yes4c103,601$3,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,784.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c93,279$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.93590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes2c74,787$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.883225%8 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes12c72,618$8,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,577.29946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes11c71,482$7,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,934.551625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad9…7ad0backed Yes4c67,518$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.091520%3 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+138.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c65,613$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.433010%3 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes2c51,457$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.9940133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes1c50,715$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.11714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+392.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes2c48,326$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.582,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Yes25c45,000$11,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,259.21,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5361…593bbacked Yes11c44,883$4,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,981.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No50c39,178$19,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,494.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x805f…7610backed Yes2c36,190$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c34,728$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.73140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Yes1c33,147$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.335036%18 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d1…e44fbacked Yes3c31,746$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c29,016$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.33844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Yes1c27,413$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.4721923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Yes19c25,972$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…5ec9backed Yes2c23,831$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked No51c22,401$11,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,953.9612843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6573…a570backed Yes1c20,561$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.78825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes19c19,501$3,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,734.34131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes2c19,473$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.87258%2 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ea…0a00backed Yes0c18,727$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes7c18,042$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.8118235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes12c18,036$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2568…ad68backed Yes2c17,926$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.485335.8%19 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c15,226$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.8260834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes19c14,916$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.36219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes16c14,301$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.522750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes3c13,994$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.676114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes1c13,766$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.86422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1823…0fa4backed Yes2c13,572$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334f…14dcbacked Yes1c13,487$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738a…b44cbacked Yes2c13,458$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked Yes2c13,109$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1994440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed No50c12,976$6,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,466.961040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes21c12,729$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.4639449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…7a4abacked Yes2c12,392$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c11,968$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.33128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-85.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes24c11,390$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,712.252,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes1c11,129$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.674129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca33…918cbacked Yes4c11,050$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.651723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes1c10,500$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick12cpaid+95.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c10,243$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.835913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9482…fa03backed Yes2c10,001$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5c4…447bbacked Yes29c9,870$2,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,862.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No76c9,637$7,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x465e…a2e7backed Yes2c9,349$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c8,965$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.789220.7%19 W · 73 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c8,913$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4462144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c8,641$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3184443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes26c8,562$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.516046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe838…3832backed Yes5c8,361$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.312241%50 W · 72 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecd9…ebc3backed Yes2c8,336$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.145040%20 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes2c8,299$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1864948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Yes23c8,000$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.9912144.6%54 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c7,738$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.922,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked Yes2c7,728$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.231250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c7,717$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5746426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab1…6afbbacked No60c7,600$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad30…6e8bbacked Yes40c7,600$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b9…03b8backed Yes1c7,208$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.571127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+301.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c7,022$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.49437%3 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes3c6,906$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.616025%15 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Yes6c6,703$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42838152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6672…e975backed Yes7c6,670$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-49.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca52…49e8backed Yes2c6,657$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ee…ba45backed Yes2c6,418$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bc…2674backed Yes13c6,266$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7903148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa38…ffb3backed Yes2c6,236$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3610925.7%28 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes1c6,191$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick1cpaid+229.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x989d…44afbacked Yes2c6,167$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.331020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcac0…3a6cbacked Yes2c5,947$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes9c5,782$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.257723.4%18 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed Yes2c5,709$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.021010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…3538backed Yes4c5,692$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-68.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa202…98d7backed Yes2c5,384$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Yes7c5,351$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.6212740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes23c5,271$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.848840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1217…7cf5backed Yes2c5,126$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed No58c5,081$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.952429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22c5…b611backed Yes2c5,065$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c6…d823backed No77c5,006$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.176959.4%41 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8f…c50cbacked Yes1c5,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes16c4,936$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.9714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,910$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.841,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c42…ffa8backed Yes1c4,770$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Yes21c4,710$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016945.6%77 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf342…1e14backed Yes1c4,691$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes20c4,579$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.6759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes11c4,545$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.982,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes18c4,527$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.233917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-52.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.