TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd1ac…08d5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
567
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Boxing, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 62 out of 100; worst College Football at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST12934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 129 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jim Harbaugh be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$130.89
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$187.7
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,281Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+53.8%+$1,228.35
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$412.56
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$2,045.17
Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+53.5%+$16.54
Colts vs. Texansbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$931Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$930.96
Will the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$682.15
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,088Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+108.8%+$1,184.11
Vikings vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,249.81
Bills vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$700
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$647Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+230.5%+$1,491.24
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$390.4
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Colts vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,206Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+89.6%+$1,976.6
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$7,787Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+54.7%+$4,256.08
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$675
Colts vs. Steelersbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$3,000
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,672Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,671.99
Chiefs vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$9,250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$15,750
Vikings vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$911Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$911.01
Will Travis Hunter play offense and defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+385.1%+$719.5
Chargers vs. Giantsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,010
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$440
Showing 25 of 129 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT9946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.27
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$371.87
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.99
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,395Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+108.8%+$2,605
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$8,577Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,577.2
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$485
Spread: Thunder (-24.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$475.01
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,742Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+62.6%+$1,715.93
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,894Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,893.64
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$7,183Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+203%+$14,583.5
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$419.48
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.59
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$830
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$6,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$3,800
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,069Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,069
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$4,400
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,535.74
NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks (To Advance)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$970.05
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$420
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$572.5
Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-0backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,262Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,261.7
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Warriors (To Advance)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10,665Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$6,812.35
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$560
Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$271.47
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers (To Advance)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,813Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+114.8%+$2,082.42
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST6740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$7,231Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$7,231.08
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40,839Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+82.8%+$33,829.26
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.68
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$541.48
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$150
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$4,556Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50%+$2,275.8
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$43.75
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80,049Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+37.4%+$29,938.55
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+178.1%+$151.33
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$443Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$442.77
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+65.5%+$182.25
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,144Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+126%+$3,963.02
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,197Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+92.7%+$2,036.42
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$5,573Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$5,572.88
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,178Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+269.4%+$3,172.92
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,599.84
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35,077Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$35,076.59
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,357Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,356.5
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$414.81
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$319.73
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$8,783Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+102.3%+$8,988.67
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,617Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+60.1%+$1,573.11
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$4,759Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,759.16
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+237.3%+$40.09
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$6,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,170.25
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST6248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+334.8%+$770
Bonfim vs. Padillabacked Bonfim · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$563Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$562.57
Dern vs. Jandirobabacked Jandiroba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$550.04
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagenbacked Sandhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralhobacked Imavov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,112Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$1,474.44
UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy backed Ruffy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,960.36
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico backed Pico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$590
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page backed Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$360
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicanobacked Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,225Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$1,275
UFC 317: Talbott vs. Limabacked Lima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,500
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Kunievbacked Kuniev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.18
UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Parkbacked Naurdiev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$428.2
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Maverickbacked Maverick · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. Sybacked Menifield · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+210.6%+$1,390
Luque vs. Hollandbacked Holland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$1,850
Gamrot vs. Kleinbacked Klein · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$410
Shevchenko vs. Fiorotbacked Fiorot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,547Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,547.09
Aldo vs. Zahabibacked Aldo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,830Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,829.99
Katona vs. Almakhanbacked Almakhan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,997Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+71.4%+$2,854.12
Sandhagen vs. Figueiredobacked Figueiredo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$177.78
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$7,188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$5,422.33
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblettbacked Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$829.92
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbullbacked Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$668Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$473.66
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$533.32
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyesbacked Krylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$590
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT3737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$55.16
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,949Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$3,888.8
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,963Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,962.63
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30,930Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+158.9%+$49,134.53
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+138.7%+$172.01
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$302.03
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14,250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+75.4%+$10,750
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$8,470Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$8,469.7
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27,160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+45.1%+$12,243.68
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$8,970Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$8,969.94
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12,102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$12,101.76
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,526Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,525.62
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,919Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+57%+$1,094.38
Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.67
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$852Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$852.13
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$37,163Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+25.6%+$9,503.54
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$9,323Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$9,322.53
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,295Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,295.14
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$3,081Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$3,081.45
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,387Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$2,387.4
Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,485Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+65.6%+$1,629.7
Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$126.03
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$1,700.28
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$814Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$813.88
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38,816Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38,816.24
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$49,153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+31.3%+$15,390.16
Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+143.9%+$616.55
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15,361Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15,361.41
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,548Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,547.67
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,114Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45.6%+$508.26
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,266Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,266.4
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$135,258Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$135,257.9
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$142,092Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+42%+$59,728.59
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$428.51
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$391.16
Will Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.37
Fed rate cut by December meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.71
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,095.35
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$409.77
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18,518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18,517.95
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18,842Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$18,841.77
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,837Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,837.11
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$99.62
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$1,062.8
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$8,270Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+97%+$8,024.9
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$4,271Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$4,270.64
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,597Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$1,596.59
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2564%16 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+67.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
Boxing — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menerybacked Menery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,113.68
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$29,415Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+26.6%+$7,810.91
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,370Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+42.9%+$1,872.68
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,031Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+48%+$1,455.06
Will Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis be decided any other way?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+537.5%+$834.91
Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by KO/TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Boxing – Salt Papi vs. Tony Fergusonbacked Salt Papi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,365Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,364.83
Fight ends in Draw/Not Scored?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+726.2%+$1,009.25
Will KSI win the match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+441.3%+$1,154.31
Will Jake Paul fight Logan Paul next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+73.2%+$2,335.48
Will Jake Paul fight Tommy Fury next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.67
Will Jake Paul fight KSI next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$276.66
Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,546Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+88.6%+$4,025.91
Will Jake Paul fight Jorge Masvidal next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,057Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$268.65
Trevvy vs. Oblivionbacked Trevvy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$409.91
Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivolbacked Beterbiev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$494.89
Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Israil Madrimovbacked Madrimov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12.78
Zhilei Zhang vs. Agit Kabayelbacked Kabayel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+59.1%+$280.6
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32,754Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+59.5%+$19,499.08
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,029Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+70%+$2,121.33
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48,799Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+74.3%+$36,251.04
Taylor vs. Serranobacked Taylor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+124%+$705.23
Ngannou vs. Ferreirabacked Ferreira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$54.89
Will Oleksandr Usyk beat Tyson Fury in Ring of Fire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,589Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2024, EDT+108.3%+$1,721.1
Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,260Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2024, EDT+92.3%+$1,162.94
All 25 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.37
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38,001Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+307.9%+$116,990.66
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$43,215Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+184.5%+$79,752.47
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$507.9
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$203.76
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$6,009Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+1,211.2%+$72,777.39
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$440.99
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$69,257Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+63.7%+$44,141.83
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11,393Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+482.1%+$54,926.7
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$639Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$638.56
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$127,517Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$127,516.75
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,399.99
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,980Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,980.19
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$9,616Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+196.3%+$18,874.26
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30,216Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+52.1%+$15,741.7
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$5,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,133.88
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,547Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+41%+$1,453.94
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$36,879Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36,879.48
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$866Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$865.52
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,640Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+82.9%+$1,360
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$361.38
Will another candidate Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$188.16
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14,017Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+239.4%+$33,551.23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$47,689Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+86.3%+$41,160.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$894Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$894.08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$7,957Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,956.56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44,270.25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12,887Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12,886.68
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,922Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,922.13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11,742Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,741.7
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10,606Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,606.17
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10,271Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$3,176.19
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$818Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+117.9%+$964.59
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$700
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,486Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,486.01
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,593Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,593.31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16,586Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$5,086.13
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,411Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$1,774.3
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.67
All 17 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
College Football — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Ole Miss (-17.5)backed Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+112.9%+$53.04
Miami vs. Texas A&Mbacked Texas A&M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$725
TCU vs. North Carolinabacked North Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$390
Texas vs. Ohio Statebacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$235
Ohio State vs. Texasbacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$136.87
Notre Dame vs. Georgiabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$870Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$870.32
Will Penn State beat Boise State by 12 or more points?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$235
Will Ohio State beat Tennessee by 8 or more points?backed Ohio St · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+100%+$250
Michigan vs. Ohio Statebacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST-100%-$410
Will USC beat Michigan?backed USC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Nebraska beat Colorado?backed Colorado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$315
Will LSU beat USC?backed USC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2024, EDT+177.8%+$320
All 12 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 AL MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+80.6%+$152.68
Will Aaron Judge win the 2025 AL MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,159Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+104.4%+$1,209.67
Will Drake Baldwin win the National League Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$526Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+65.1%+$341.9
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.7
Tigers vs. Marinersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$480
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$4,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,226.45
World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 4backed Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+78.6%+$220
World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 3backed Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT+138.1%+$290
World Series: Dodgers vs. Yankees Game 2backed Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$220
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,823Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+33%+$1,260
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5)backed Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,195.87
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,537Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$942.17
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$724Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+96.4%+$698.56
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,289Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$1,189.52
Tennessee vs. Houstonbacked Tennessee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$482.9
Michigan vs. Auburnbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Ole Miss vs. Michigan Statebacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$185
Arkansas vs. Texas Techbacked Texas Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$290
Creighton vs. Louisvillebacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$914Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$913.77
Will Arizona win the NCAA tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,137.62
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$147.11
Will 'Red One' gross between $24-27m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$77.31
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+157.5%+$155.45
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $48-54m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$155
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+337.5%+$270
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$210
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT+81.6%+$420.1
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT+43.8%+$213.25
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$510
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$533.29
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+100%+$250
Devils vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$77.5
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2024, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Fritz win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$131.01
Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,007Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,006.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$90
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Finalbacked Dortmund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$157.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,657Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,657.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris win the Singapore Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$6,783Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$6,782.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.