TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,490,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,562,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,490,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,749 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Yes75c124,494$92,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,519.6747848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked No24c102,990$24,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,480.398333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes49c89,290$43,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,905.2440448.3%195 W · 209 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes53c83,147$43,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,464.734942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes64c67,678$43,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,297.7128341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4da0…deb5backed Yes67c56,322$37,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,586.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19af…298cbacked No33c56,322$18,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,586.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes55c53,081$29,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,761535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes66c50,117$32,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,263.751457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked No6c39,254$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.971216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-72.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes61c37,926$22,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,974.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes50c26,734$13,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,465.765628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Yes58c24,001$13,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,084.173666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes61c22,447$13,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,837.8513560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes40c19,914$7,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,929.8331347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes57c19,698$11,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,426.7122750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Yes76c19,609$14,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.0710357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6236…15f1backed Yes35c19,446$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,726.19922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes50c17,471$8,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,657.026361.9%39 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes80c16,014$12,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.431838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No37c14,858$5,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,513.0218536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No9c14,702$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes62c13,812$8,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,190.3830443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes43c13,096$5,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,444.897248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed No47c12,754$5,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,939.6726640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes47c12,159$5,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,490.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes42c12,142$5,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,079.2312245.1%55 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed No24c12,111$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.6420248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes60c11,452$6,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,581.563441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes56c11,169$6,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,918.1710926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes65c10,900$7,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,845.177347.9%35 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes51c10,697$5,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.5720447.1%96 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes50c10,560$5,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,282.861,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No25c10,549$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,641.62441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes43c10,057$4,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,703.623938.5%15 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7003961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4009946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91c7…28ccbacked Yes62c9,605$5,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,649.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes63c9,502$6,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.1415341.8%64 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed No44c9,499$4,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,167.58395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3575…4f23backed Yes46c8,930$4,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,791.661844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+85%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No38c8,447$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.492317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No10c8,148$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.9514434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes53c8,001$4,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No47c7,489$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.8343543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Yes57c6,616$3,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,818.5650239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0403…f445backed No49c6,445$3,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,162.430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed Yes79c5,562$4,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca74…3b40backed Yes51c5,465$2,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Yes74c5,174$3,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.454854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes74c5,151$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.8127547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked Yes76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2002458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes62c4,657$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.248823.9%21 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Yes75c4,585$3,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.536549.2%32 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Yes56c4,428$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes58c4,314$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.02119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-84.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddcd…5581backed Yes76c4,146$3,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Yes55c4,086$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.5648137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes44c3,981$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.27994%4 W · 95 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes47c3,841$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.7217044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Yes51c3,634$1,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.5872241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes44c3,530$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.81,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Yes55c3,492$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.1419149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Yes65c3,450$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.345230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes37c3,377$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.1212930.2%39 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x318a…360bbacked Yes57c3,245$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.043767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No57c3,027$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.75313.2%7 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes38c3,017$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.218324.1%20 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed No49c2,999$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes60c2,938$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.335756.1%32 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No36c2,740$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.682,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes65c2,700$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93930641.8%128 W · 178 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x705b…7483backed Yes57c2,674$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes58c2,644$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.851,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes53c2,616$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.765646.4%26 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7921…4a6bbacked No25c2,615$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…4e7ebacked Yes76c2,539$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.473100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…fae0backed Yes37c2,500$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.963138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked No18c2,450$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43816140.4%65 W · 96 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes51c2,448$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.523948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes41c2,439$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.026026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes57c2,392$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.528347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes52c2,367$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.310542.9%45 W · 60 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes31c2,286$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.288853.4%47 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked Yes30c2,233$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.985952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes56c2,214$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.295032%16 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2006…cc76backed Yes24c2,183$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+87.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.919442.6%40 W · 54 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…ab4dbacked Yes58c2,135$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.711250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+252.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1754…cbf0backed Yes61c2,133$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d7…03dcbacked Yes24c2,125$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6151100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes52c2,118$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.518650%93 W · 93 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed No40c2,082$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.992330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No37c2,072$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.279543.2%41 W · 54 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c2,071$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes53c2,060$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.423852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed No42c2,042$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.1222039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8342…13c9backed Yes54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92023548.1%113 W · 122 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.