TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2606…aadd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: MLB, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 52 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$160.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,652Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+69.7%+$1,847.74
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,482Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,481.98
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$52.88
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+155.8%+$637.36
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.26
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$736Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+199.3%+$1,467.99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$602Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$601.82
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.8
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+68.5%+$220.47
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$918Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+47%+$431.91
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.28
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$490
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.75
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$266
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$702.04
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$103.81
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+110.2%+$203.62
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+49.5%+$33.26
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+46.2%+$256.84
Iran strike on Israel in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,561.03
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$46.9
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT2458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$564Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$564.06
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+28%+$123.95
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+100.6%+$175.5
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+213.4%+$29.43
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$549
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$909Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$293.12
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$371.33
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.37
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+49.1%+$65.07
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$197.6
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+81.4%+$132.9
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$904.41
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.74
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$57.88
Cavaliers vs. Warriorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$12.57
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$56.95
Raptors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$103.56
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.22
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+65.6%+$122.66
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.7
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,800Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$1,200
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$145.97
All 24 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.95
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.12
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$423.5
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$125.87
Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$14.52
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT+73.1%+$67.71
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT+38.4%+$95.68
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tigers vs. Cardinalsbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$55.72
Orioles vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT+37.5%+$109
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump post about a memecoin before election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$109.06
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$695.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$624Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$375.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$793Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+26.1%+$207.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockxbacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,986Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,985.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$734Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$733.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Khamzat Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.