TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$243,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6dd…98eebacked No38c17,070$6,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,550.9920143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed No39c6,207$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,775.23050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46c9…7636backed No26c5,024$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,702.833652.8%19 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3471…a9d4backed Yes78c3,939$3,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0771656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e3…384ebacked Yes25c3,762$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.931172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfde9…cc30backed No34c3,560$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.642634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No30c3,491$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,443.4116231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes75c3,210$2,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,396.966543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed No32c2,796$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.684748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes71c2,735$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.3411334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes46c2,728$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.469825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe6…2440backed Yes77c2,612$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-70.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x199d…6e7bbacked Yes79c2,525$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick66cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No30c2,483$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.344531.1%14 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked No35c2,340$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.591353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed No59c2,093$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.693327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes62c2,069$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.894820.8%10 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed No26c2,038$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.415851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x08a6…f1bbbacked Yes59c2,000$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes69c1,911$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.347946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes59c1,743$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.585135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x934c…cd38backed No36c1,618$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.366358.7%37 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+37.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes59c1,608$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.5548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes77c1,488$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.8651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked No19c1,441$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.133040%12 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes43c1,431$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.6458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac87…ae28backed No33c1,378$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.781136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5654…b33ebacked Yes66c1,363$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.42070%14 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No24c1,341$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.2350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes30c1,337$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.897020%14 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed No21c1,217$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.124146.3%19 W · 22 L+9.6wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+79%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x364d…9f8fbacked No14c1,095$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.41per pick31cpaid+185.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes37c1,086$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.7331241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked No39c1,047$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.362445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed No55c1,034$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4668741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f47…9387backed Yes66c1,018$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.75525.5%14 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked No34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66022227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No47c998.13$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.9825843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No21c922.02$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.9242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes62c899.99$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.996549.2%32 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed No33c899.21$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.947627.6%21 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No12c897.78$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.4319056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed No31c868.7$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.036165.6%40 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No49c859.25$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.1577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No28c825.97$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.8312951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed Yes72c771.91$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.7913538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes70c749.41$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.5913138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No53c743.02$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.1819449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d3f…da78backed Yes17c735.28$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No30c720.81$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.7635921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x598e…7336backed Yes22c639.44$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-80.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed No41c629.44$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.72729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No22c618.52$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.265442.6%23 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+45.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No25c605$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.7520823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No26c600$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44426429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes30c600$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805238.5%20 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No18c597.28$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.7212638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed Yes77c595.05$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1911633.6%39 W · 77 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes12c581.36$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.472742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba62…58e9backed Yes65c580.29$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.374032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes71c563.02$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002025%5 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8179…4403backed Yes36c552.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a80…5d2dbacked No18c544.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.54580%4 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick30cpaid+293.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61b7…693abacked No45c533.13$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No25c510.13$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.3729254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed No30c499.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.992045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c495.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.473717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes6c494.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6426619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes60c485.25$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No27c474.7$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.061050%5 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+62.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes33c473.3$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2828427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fe…4c18backed No13c466.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.133748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes74c457.19$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.74372.1%31 W · 12 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes31c452.8$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.443630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes5c430.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes8c421.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3811320.4%23 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes49c418.12$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.562339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b1…61b0backed No38c409.09$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.091675%12 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+73.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No25c399.42$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.587661.8%47 W · 29 L+16.5wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+46.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c387.09$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.967841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed Yes78c386.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…7e89backed Yes53c373.03$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe546…28a6backed No33c372.78$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No55c368.68$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.298739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7818…e527backed No22c366.09$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+127.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No34c365.24$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.1312037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefe5…58bcbacked No79c362.43$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.681266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…a491backed Yes28c361.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No44c357.69$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6924759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No34c357$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.38040%32 W · 48 L+11.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+83.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x96c2…8df5backed Yes59c353.87$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210130%0 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No39c347.22$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.677648.7%37 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…72bebacked No11c346.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.691540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+139.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No45c341.45$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.457360.3%44 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc72…b99abacked No44c340.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.292433.3%8 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+277.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd726…b5c9backed No38c339.43$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.433161.3%19 W · 12 L+8.9wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+97.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes75c333.5$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes60c330.57$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.348747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b16…9aabbacked No66c330.32$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.