Middle East · resolved market
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf8a1105392d88cdd573deaa65df33e1f89fc87d250fd6f5513b60ee51f548a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 38c | 17,070$6,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,550.99 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 39c | 6,207$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,775.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed No | 26c | 5,024$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,702.83 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…a9d4backed Yes | 78c | 3,939$3,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…384ebacked Yes | 25c | 3,762$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed No | 34c | 3,560$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,363.64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 30c | 3,491$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.41 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 75c | 3,210$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.96 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 32c | 2,796$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.68 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 71c | 2,735$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.34 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 46c | 2,728$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.46 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2440backed Yes | 77c | 2,612$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…6e7bbacked Yes | 79c | 2,525$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 30c | 2,483$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.34 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked No | 35c | 2,340$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed No | 59c | 2,093$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.69 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 62c | 2,069$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.89 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 26c | 2,038$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.41 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f1bbbacked Yes | 59c | 2,000$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 69c | 1,911$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.34 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 59c | 1,743$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.58 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed No | 36c | 1,618$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.36 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 59c | 1,608$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.55 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,488$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.86 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 19c | 1,441$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.13 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 43c | 1,431$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.64 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…ae28backed No | 33c | 1,378$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…b33ebacked Yes | 66c | 1,363$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 24c | 1,341$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.23 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,337$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.89 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 21c | 1,217$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.12 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…9f8fbacked No | 14c | 1,095$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 31cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 37c | 1,086$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.73 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked No | 39c | 1,047$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 55c | 1,034$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 66c | 1,018$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.7 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 47c | 998.13$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.98 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 922.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.92 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes | 62c | 899.99$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.99 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 33c | 899.21$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.94 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 12c | 897.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.43 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 31c | 868.7$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.03 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 859.25$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.15 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 28c | 825.97$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.83 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 72c | 771.91$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.79 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 70c | 749.41$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.59 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 53c | 743.02$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.18 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…da78backed Yes | 17c | 735.28$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 30c | 720.81$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.76 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…7336backed Yes | 22c | 639.44$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed No | 41c | 629.44$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 22c | 618.52$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.26 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 25c | 605$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.75 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 26c | 600$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 18c | 597.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.72 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 77c | 595.05$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.19 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 12c | 581.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed Yes | 65c | 580.29$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.37 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 71c | 563.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 36c | 552.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…5d2dbacked No | 18c | 544.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 30cpaid | +293.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…693abacked No | 45c | 533.13$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 25c | 510.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.37 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 495.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 6c | 494.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 60c | 485.25$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.15 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 27c | 474.7$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 33c | 473.3$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 13c | 466.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.13 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 74c | 457.19$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.7 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 31c | 452.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 5c | 430.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 421.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 49c | 418.12$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b1…61b0backed No | 38c | 409.09$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.09 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 25c | 399.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.58 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 387.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.9 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 78c | 386.63$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…7e89backed Yes | 53c | 373.03$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe546…28a6backed No | 33c | 372.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 55c | 368.68$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.29 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…e527backed No | 22c | 366.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 34c | 365.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…58bcbacked No | 79c | 362.43$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…a491backed Yes | 28c | 361.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 44c | 357.69$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.69 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 34c | 357$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…8df5backed Yes | 59c | 353.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 39c | 347.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.67 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…72bebacked No | 11c | 346.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 45c | 341.45$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.45 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked No | 44c | 340.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed No | 38c | 339.43$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.43 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 333.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.19 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 60c | 330.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.34 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9aabbacked No | 66c | 330.32$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.