TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f47…9387

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT5525.5%14 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$64
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,299Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+48.4%+$628.35
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.67
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+269%+$40.19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$925Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$925
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$136
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$105
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$326
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.52
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.94
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.46
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$869Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$869.41
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,519Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,518.98
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$675.7
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.8
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,389.88
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$536.36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.6
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+88.4%+$468.74
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$46.79
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$147.71
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+122.1%+$104.23
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,454Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+36.2%+$526.29
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$127.4
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+242.2%+$267.34
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$273.82
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$26.26
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$147
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.2m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$56.86
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.4m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$56.94
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.3m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$45.03
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$84.26
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$30.2
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$233.92
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+525%+$168
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$87
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$234
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,397Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,397.2
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$282
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.22
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$622Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$621.99
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Moez Echarguibacked Aleksandar Kovacevic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.