Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x561cd8d035bac38ed04e23d7882a126da38d7ead9d6679f722ad62c0c9d54ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,596,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,596,875 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,711 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 0c | 1,960,280$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.59 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -7.1wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed No | 0c | 1,411,438$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…4054backed No | 0c | 1,205,269$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed No | 0c | 1,108,017$3,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,254.35 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No | 0c | 795,560$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked No | 0c | 433,153$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…b7f6backed No | 0c | 416,002$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 0c | 413,895$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.44 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665c…ee58backed No | 0c | 389,262$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…ab99backed No | 20c | 375,678$73,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,449.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 25c | 359,870$90,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,929.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…3216backed No | 0c | 348,087$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed No | 0c | 313,515$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed No | 0c | 306,000$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…0b05backed No | 0c | 291,023$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed No | 4c | 267,799$10,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,270.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.49per pick | 37cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 54c | 262,731$142,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142,999 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked No | 1c | 252,675$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 13c | 248,463$32,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,818.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 28c | 240,281$68,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,476.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…8bdebacked No | 0c | 240,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 79c | 236,180$186,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,429.18 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 0c | 235,878$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…353fbacked No | 0c | 227,930$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed No | 4c | 222,346$8,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,006.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 20c | 215,789$42,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,446.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ef…b4b5backed No | 0c | 213,771$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 1c | 210,840$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa3…02c0backed No | 0c | 210,264$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed No | 0c | 210,139$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…a042backed No | 0c | 200,584$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…8744backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…71f4backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…12b9backed No | 0c | 199,882$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…732ebacked No | 0c | 199,820$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked No | 0c | 198,400$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bc…6233backed No | 1c | 195,522$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28f…39a4backed No | 0c | 193,628$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked No | 2c | 192,674$4,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,177.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285c…d137backed No | 0c | 184,244$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 29c | 171,070$49,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,910.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9178backed No | 0c | 166,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…1bbfbacked No | 0c | 166,140$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1f30backed No | 0c | 165,455$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 164,106$8,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,494.5 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe813…1e91backed No | 31c | 163,386$49,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…d4b1backed No | 0c | 160,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…d947backed No | 0c | 160,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked No | 1c | 158,263$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed No | 5c | 152,006$8,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,154.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…e18cbacked No | 0c | 151,790$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 26c | 149,099$38,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,134.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…8588backed No | 0c | 148,240$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 12c | 142,750$17,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,597.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…f58bbacked No | 0c | 140,472$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452c…e5b1backed No | 1c | 140,386$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 60c | 139,041$83,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,643.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…5cdabacked No | 0c | 137,214$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…71edbacked No | 7c | 135,643$10,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,056.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked No | 0c | 134,129$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 0c | 131,933$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked No | 7c | 127,145$8,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,387.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…bdfdbacked No | 2c | 125,513$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…796cbacked No | 0c | 123,860$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…68ccbacked No | 6c | 122,913$6,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,769.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked No | 0c | 122,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…8d98backed No | 0c | 119,810$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…76d7backed No | 1c | 119,084$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…6299backed No | 0c | 116,280$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…49b5backed No | 1c | 114,745$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed No | 0c | 114,600$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…1ad7backed No | 0c | 114,390$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…8f44backed No | 0c | 114,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 6c | 113,839$6,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,659.33 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…58abbacked No | 0c | 113,294$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 19c | 113,167$21,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,368.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 65c | 112,971$73,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,453.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked No | 0c | 111,969$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 80c | 108,861$86,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,895.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…0a8dbacked No | 53c | 108,841$57,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,711.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…b785backed No | 0c | 108,306$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…4461backed No | 1c | 108,175$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked No | 3c | 108,171$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…f2debacked No | 0c | 106,165$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…5cc6backed No | 0c | 105,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 103,156$34,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,294.68 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…b9b7backed No | 0c | 101,155$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…5730backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…a05ebacked No | 0c | 99,447$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f1…0df8backed No | 0c | 99,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…8282backed No | 2c | 97,155$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…18a9backed No | 0c | 90,527$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec65…d22dbacked No | 0c | 90,521$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…1c11backed No | 0c | 90,510$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…7eb9backed No | 0c | 88,812$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 62c | 86,013$53,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,572.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…de23backed No | 1c | 85,333$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…945fbacked No | 1c | 85,023$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…fdcdbacked No | 0c | 84,870$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…f9f9backed No | 0c | 84,390$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?this page
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?Yes won
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.